Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
329 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Talked briefly last night about this weak secondary trough that
would work its way through the state tonight. While it's doing
that...it looks like the most it will bring to the middle-state is
some clouds. The rains have stayed off to the east.
Everything else is pretty much the same from last night. Zero probability of precipitation
throughout the forecast as things dry out and return to normal for
October. Temperatures will run several degrees below normal as some
dry cp air works its way into the southeast...along the western
periphery of a strong upper low over the eastern Seaboard. If
there's anything I have some consternation about it's today's
highs. Thickness values would support highs 3-4 degrees below most
of the MOS guidance values. Will run with the MOS and see what
happens. Either way we're looking at middle to upper 60s for the area
with copious sunshine. Should be a very nice day.
As we move into Thursday and Friday...another upper level shortwave
develops in the Pacific northwest and moves across the northern
plains. While it does produce a surface feature in southern
Canada...by the time any of the energy gets to the MS river...the
system is nothing. We may see an increase in clouds Thursday and
Friday...but that's about it.
Temperatures will continue to rebound though. We should be at
seasonal norms by Friday...and by Monday we may very well be near 80
degrees at Nashville Airport as an upper level ridge settle into the
southeast U.S. I advertised yesterday that this warmup might be
associated with our next weather maker...but the long range Euro
guidance is suggesting this front washing out like the Thursday-Friday
system. Either way...thickness values support this warmup...so will
run several degrees Above All MOS values at this time.
Cold front poised to move across the middle state by 12z. There will
be a little drier air behind the front but models still indicating
low dew point depressions by 12z. Tover values are near zero bna...
and slightly negative for csv and ckv. Therefore...will include
some light fog late. Low level moisture will remain during the day
on Tuesday. Will likely see some scattered to perhaps broken cloudiness
during that period. Clouds will decrease in coverage after 00z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 68 43 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 68 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 63 40 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 69 43 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 70 43 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 70 43 63 39 / 0 0 0 0