Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
936 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015
Update...for evening discussion.
High pressure is dominating the area this evening and other than a
few high cloud drifting in from the northwest...clear skies reign. Update
this evening revolved around hourly dew points trends but and even
with calm winds...no fog is expected tonight as dew point
depressions are in the range of 20 to 30 degrees.
Focus then becomes tomorrow afternoon and the potential for strong
storms. Temperatures are expected to climb into low 70s for a good
portion of middle Tennessee. Dew points should also climb into the middle to
upper 50s in our area of focus...our southwest counties. Deep
layer shear isn't exactly impressive at 35-40 kts...but it could
be enough to support decent updrafts amongst 1000-1500 j/kg.
Expect some late afternoon development near the Alabama state line
that could produce some strong wind gusts. Decent middle-level lapse
rates and forecast sounding depicting some dry air aloft could
enhance MUCAPE values and the hail threat as well so this will
need to be monitored as afternoon temperatures climb.
Updates already out.
Aviation...00z taf discussion.
VFR. Clear skies and light and variable winds can be expected
during the overnight hours. Clouds will start to creep in late
tomorrow morning and afternoon...but should remain south. Ceilings
should remain VFR through the taf period for all sites.