Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1030 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Surface observation this morning show a warmer and more humid day versus
yesterday at this time with temperatures already in the low to middle 80s
and dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s under mostly clear skies.
Forecast looks to be on track with highs heading for the middle 80s
to lower 90s areawide. Cannot completely rule out an isolated
shower...mainly on the plateau...but chance is far too remote for
a pop mention.
Previous discussion... /issued 634 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
for 12z aviation.
Fog is currently MVFR/IFR at kcsv and kckv...with even quarter
mile visible reported at kckv this morning. Fog should last until
around 14z or so...then expect VFR conditions for all taf sites
through the remainder of the taf period. Fog may again be possible
tomorrow during the early morning hours...but do not have mention
in the forecast just yet.
Previous discussion... /issued 305 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
Other than a few high clouds and some patchy fog observations...
things remain quiet across middle Tennessee this morning. A very
stagnant pattern has taken over the forecast and this will be the
case for the next couple of days. Ridging both at the surface and
aloft without any significant directional boundary layer flow will
keep temperatures from climbing any more than one or two degrees
each day. Wednesday still looks to be the warmest of the week when
the ridge will have its greatest influence.
On Thursday the surface ridge centered to our north starts to slip
off to the east and this will put US into a southeasterly boundary
layer flow. In response...an increase in low-level moisture will
help to boost probability of precipitation ever so slightly for Friday-Sunday...and while
this remains only a chance pop...it looks like the areas with the
best chances will be the south and east each afternoon.
Overall...the upcoming Holiday weekend looks to be nice with small
probability of precipitation and temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 70 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 10
Clarksville 68 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
Crossville 67 86 67 85 / 0 10 0 10
Columbia 68 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
Lawrenceburg 69 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 20
Waverly 68 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 10