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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
543 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016

Update...
for 00z aviation discussion.

&&

Discussion...

1040 mbar surface high centered over the middle west this afternoon
will keep cold air working down into the middle state tonight into
early Sunday. Strong middle and upper jet pattern across the region
with ongoing speed maximum punching down through southeast Kansas at
12z Sunday morning will strengthen west to east across Kentucky
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. With cold temperatures already in
place am expecting to see a wintry mix of snow...sleet and
freezing rain moving into the middle state from the northwest during
the day Sunday. I don't see a lot of surface reflection with this
system but there is a weak surface wave that develops in the lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday night that will act as a focus to
intensify the precipitation here in the middle state. This will be a quick
hitting winter event but fortunately enough warmer temperatures get
advected into the middle state and the wintry precipitation will likely
change to all rain as we go through Sunday evening with one
exception being the upper Cumberland where it may be late Sunday
night before a change over occurs in that area. This should
alleviate any problems that initially develops on roadways rather
quickly.

I've kept probability of precipitation in the forecast through Tuesday night then dry
Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances returning Friday night
and Saturday. Temperatures moderate as we go through the work week with
highs by Friday in the middle 60's.

&&

Aviation...
00z taf discussion.

VFR ceilings will continue spreading over airports this evening and
gradually lower through the night. Expecting mainly virga with
some -shsn around airports as early as 12-16z...possibly even
earlier per hrrr model runs...but main -shsn will begin in the
14-19z timeframe and continue through the end of the current taf
period with ceilings/visible lowering to MVFR. Light northeast winds this
evening will veer to southeasterly and increase during the day
tomorrow with gusts up to 20 kts possible.

&&

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 am CST Monday for
Cheatham-Clay-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-Overton-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-white-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation........55/shamburger
long term..................10/Reagan

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