Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
205 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014
A rather quiet weather pattern is in store for middle Tennessee over the
next week. We'll finish out the weekend however with a chance for
showers and storms Sunday as a cold front crosses the region.
This front is quickly approaching from the Midwest region...and will
likely reach the Tennessee/Kentucky border shortly after sunrise Sunday morning.
Ahead of this feature for the rest of tonight...a few showers could
pop up ahead of the front overnight...but moisture looks to be along
and behind the front. So think our best chance for showers/storms
tomorrow will be during the daylight hours. Could have a few showers
lag into the evening hours from the upper trough but not too
impressed with the overall moisture fields. Think 50 probability of precipitation are too
high so have trimmed those back to lower chances.
Once the front and upper trough push through the middle state...upper
ridging will build into the region and keep US dry through the work
week. Not sure we could ask for better weather for the first day of
fall as monday's afternoon highs behind the front will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s. High temperatures will slowly increase
into the low 80s by Friday with cool nights in the 50s continuing. By
next weekend...both the GFS and Euro have weak upper level energy
nosing into the Tennessee Valley from the Gulf Coast. Although the details
between the two are quite different...went ahead and inserted probability of precipitation
across the south for Saturday given the model trends.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 69 84 56 73 / 10 30 10 0
Clarksville 65 83 53 71 / 20 30 10 0
Crossville 64 79 54 69 / 10 40 20 0
Columbia 65 85 55 73 / 10 30 20 0
Lawrenceburg 66 85 56 74 / 10 40 20 0
Waverly 67 84 54 73 / 10 30 10 0