Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 
326 PM CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Discussion... 
a few showers popped up at middle afternoon over north and northeast 
parts of middle Tennessee as 500 mb trough rotates through the Ohio Valley. 
These should remain isolated through the rest of the afternoon and 
end this evening with loss of daytime heating and as the trough 
moves to our east. West and northwest winds behind a cold front that was 
moving through the middle state this afternoon will become more 
northerly overnight and stay up enough to prevent fog from 
developing Friday morning. 


Fair but cooler weather is in store Friday as trough moves slowly 
toward the East Coast...leaving northwesterly flow aloft across our region. 
It will be surprisingly cold Friday night as surface ridge settles in 
across the area and skies remain clear. In fact...low to middle 40s 
will be common for Saturday morning/S min temperatures but a few areas 
may drop into the upper 30s. The average low temperature this time 
of year should be in the 55 to 60 degree range. 


It will be dry Saturday and daytime temperatures will increase a little 
bit...but a better warmup will commence on Sunday as the 500 mb low 
moves further up the East Coast and ridging builds across the 
Tennessee/Ohio valleys. However...decided to insert 20 to 30 probability of precipitation Sunday 
and Monday as a warm front may get hung up in the region for a 
couple days. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s Tuesday/Wed/thur as 
the warm front moves well north of the area and 500 mb ridging 
intensifies. There could be an isolated thunderstorm or two 
during middle week but chances are too low to mention in the 
forecast. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Nashville 52 70 47 76 / 10 0 0 05 
Clarksville 47 68 44 77 / 10 05 0 05 
Crossville 50 65 40 72 / 20 0 0 0 
Columbia 53 71 47 77 / 10 0 0 05 
Lawrenceburg 53 72 47 78 / 10 05 0 05 
Waverly 49 70 45 77 / 10 05 0 05 


&& 


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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