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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
349 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 346 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015
consensus amongst the medium range model indicate that the upper
level longwave trough stretching from Alaska to the Pacific northwest will
broaden just a bit when it moves into western Canada later on middle
week. As this occurs...a very broad upper ridge will encompass the
central and eastern Continental U.S..

Going forecast in pretty good shape...only minor tweaks needed.
Warmer conditions are on tap the next several days with precipitation
chances coming late Monday night then again Tuesday night.

Monday night chances revolving around potent vorticity maximum migrating
along the U.S./Can border and attendant cold front that will
eventually stall out and extend from the western Great Lakes to the
Central High plains. At this point not all that impresses with precipitation
potential. And with models in agreement showing weakening of
low/middle layer ageostrophic forcing...token 20s seem reasonable.

Tuesday night precipitation development is in association with combination of
relatively strong 310k upglide/low level Theta-E advection. Given no upper
level support will be on hand...seems reasonable to just
continue small probability of precipitation at that time.

Otherwise...maximum temperatures warming into the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.



Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
issued at 346 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Large scale pattern heading into next weekend will change little
with a broad upper trough prevailing west and ridging east with above
normal maximum temperatures expected. Small precipitation chance Wednesday night mainly over
the eastern County Warning Area where pocket of isentropic upglide will be most
prevalent. As for probability of precipitation Friday night through Sunday...not all that
impressed with precipitation potential given relatively unfavorable
upper pattern and prefer to again go with token 20s.

&&

Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Low MVFR clouds had finally cleared all taf sites for the 00z taf
issuance...but had moved back into the koma site a couple hours
after. The stratus was also very close to redeveloping at klnk.
Kofk remains clear. Where the stratus remains...only MVFR fog may
develop overnight. If skies would clear at klnk/koma...then fog
could be locally dense and possibly reach IFR and maybe even LIFR
at times. Temporary MVFR fog possible at kofk. Winds also increase
later in the taf period at kofk 12-18 knots by late morning and
through the afternoon.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Dee
long term...Dee
aviation...Dewald

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