Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
629 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 250 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Main concern in the very short term is an area of dense fog that
had developed across southwest Iowa...and likely along the
Missouri River south of Nebraska City. Hrrr/rap seems to have a
good handle on this...and dissipates it from the north through middle
morning. Issued a dense fog advisory earlier in the night for a
handful of counties through 14z.
Otherwise...very mild and much above normal temperatures continue through
the weekend as the upper ridge builds across the region today.
Highs today should range in the 70s once again. For tonight...models
do indicate that some lower clouds should develop across portions
of the area as low level moisture is advected in on persistent
southeasterly flow. This area of moisture then lifts northeast
through the day Sunday. Have some concern that this could limit
heating potential. Latest met guidance picked up on this trend by
knocking several degrees off the forecast highs. GFS moves the
moisture through fairly quickly and still warms temperatures to previous
forecast. Adjusted forecast down a couple of degrees where clouds
could linger the longest...but kept readings around 80 still in
A front does move into the area on Monday as an upper trough moves
across the northern rockies and onto the northern plains. This
brings cooler temperatures and a small chance of showers that could
linger along/east of the Missouri River Monday evening.
Long term...(tuesday through friday) issued at 250 am CDT Sat
Oct 25 2014
Area will remain behind the cold front on Tuesday with northwesterly
flow. Temperatures are closer to normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with dry conditions. A very brief return flow develops on
Wednesday with slight recovery into the Lower/Middle 60s...however
another weak front moves in right behind it Wednesday night.
Previous forecast did have a very small chance of showers
Wednesday night...but 00z models are not as strong with the
moisture...thus pulled them out for now. Current forecast blends
for Halloween have highs only in the lower to middle 50s.
Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 625 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
VFR conditions are expected today. Light winds will become east
and then southeast this evening. Moisture will return overnight
and this could lead to stratus development late in the period.
Models indicate that this may move into the terminals right at the
end of the period...or more likely just after 12z at the
terminals. Will include some MVFR visby at klnk for the last
couple of hours but deteriorating conditions are likely just after
this forecast cycle at all sites.
NE...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for nez091-093.
Iowa...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for iaz080-090-