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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
330 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Short term...(tonight through thursday)
issued at 320 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Forecast concerns in the short term will be the onset of
precipitation and rain chances through the week.

It was a chilly start with temperatures in the upper 30s (wayne) and
mostly in the 40s...with quite a bit of Valley/River fog. Sunshine
this afternoon and light south winds is pushing temperatures into
the 70s...however clouds are on the increase. Deeper moisture has
made it into the Nebraska Panhandle and this is where the showers
were per the WSR- 88D mosaic late this morning. By middle
afternoon...the coverage of showers had increased and was just
west of an Ainsworth to Lexington line. According to the total
lightning and nldn...the bulk of the thunder is closer to the
closed 500 mb low over Wyoming and Colorado.

Tonight...the closed 500 mb low opens up and there is distinct shortwave
trough energy that tracks across South Dakota and Nebraska. This
combined with the increasing low level jet and progress of deeper
moisture should result in showers and thunderstorms increasing
from west to east. The water vapor satellite imagery shows a nice
fetch of middle level moisture and these higher 700 mb dewpoints make in
across eastern Nebraska by 12z. Will reflect this in the probability of precipitation
with high probability of precipitation in the west and mainly dry for western Iowa and far
eastern Nebraska. There are differences in the orientation and
progress of the precipitation. Generally increase rain chances
eastward through the day with likely probability of precipitation over much of the
area with continued Omega/warm air advection. The intensity will
be highly variable though. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue Tuesday night.

The longwave trough stalls over the plains with continued rain chances
Wednesday. This feature weakens significantly Wednesday night with
dry to only low probability of precipitation. Middle level ridging builds in for Thursday...so
dry and warmer conditions are forecast.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 320 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A ridge of high pressure and warmer temperatures will dominate the
forecast through Saturday. Depending on how the next long wave
trough evolves...may need to add rain chances in for Sunday. Will
hold off on that for now...as the better chance looks to be on
Monday.

&&

Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

VFR conditions through the period with thickening clouds. Showers
move into the kofk by about 09-12zz...klnk by about 12-15z...and
koma by 15-18z.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...zapotocny
long term...zapotocny
aviation...Dewald

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