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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
305 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

Short term...(tonight through sunday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

The primary forecast concerns in this period are precipitation chances for cover tonight into Friday and then temperatures
through the weekend.

Strongest 500 mb 12 hour height falls at 12z were centered over Lake
Superior...with our area in northwest flow. Clouds were increasing
over the area this afternoon...with some radar echoes out of a middle
level cloud deck spreading southeastward.

Recent hrrr and rap13 model runs show light precipitation spreading across
the forecast area into the early morning hours of Friday. Think
amounts will be very light...0.02 inches or less at most spots...
but isolated higher amounts possible. Decided to just go with
areal coverage wording. Look for the precipitation to end as deeper
moisture and lift exit the area. Low clouds currently up over Minnesota
and the eastern Dakotas should drop down into Iowa and parts of eastern NE
later tonight.

High pressure at the surface will build over the region on Friday.
We expect a moderately thick area of high level cloudiness to spread
across the forecast area from the west/northwest in the afternoon...which
may hold temperatures down a bit. Look for highs mostly in the middle
or upper 60s...but some lower 60s possible in western Iowa.

Return flow strengthens Friday night into Saturday...with low level
warm advection. Thickness and 850 mb temperature forecasts suggest highs 75 to
80 in our eastern zones and lower 80s west. There are hints that
some low clouds may occur in the southerly flow Saturday morning so
will need to watch for that potential. Boosted highs a bit for
Sunday with good mixing expected ahead of the next cold front that
will be moving in by Sunday afternoon or evening. Moisture seems
limited at this point so kept probability of precipitation below 10 percent.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 305 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

Model consensus keeps this period mainly dry. A fairly strong push
of cool air will move in Sunday night...resulting in highs mostly
in the lower or middle 70s for Monday. Fairly fast west/northwest flow aloft
will likely have some embedded shortwaves in the flow...but these
should not be strong enough to produce much precipitation. Models are in
fairly good agreement showing a closed low initially off the Baja California
coast moving up to California by the end of the week.

Locally...highs should average in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday...
with slightly cooler readings on Thursday.


Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Miller
long term...Miller

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