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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG 
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS 
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z 
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF 
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD 
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW 
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH 
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7 
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS 
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.  

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO 
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH 
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT 
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW 
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING 
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO 
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS 
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL 
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN

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