Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
632 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 300 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Spotty showers had developed over southeast Nebraska since
midnight in area of strong warm advection depicted by models and
in advance of a weak middle level trough. Instability rather limited
this morning so expect little in the way of thunder with scattered
showers working east into Iowa through the morning.

More extensive convection still expected to develop this afternoon
and this evening in advance of a cold front as it pushes into
the eastern half of Nebraska. A period of severe weather is
possible late this afternoon into the early evening with the
front. In addition...an axis of high precipitable water will be in place from
Texas into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa ahead of the cold
front this afternoon and tonight with heavy rain potential for the
area. Convection should gradually end after midnight as front
moves east of the area with lingering showers behind the front
through the predawn hours.

Gusty south to southeast will precede the cold front today with
gusts to 45 miles per hour possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
western and northern parts of the forecast area from middle morning
to meteorological impact statement afternoon. Breezy conditions are also indicated for
Thursday as strong northwest winds move into the area behind the
front.

Weaker surface pattern settles over the area Thursday night into
Friday with region between troughs over the East Coast and West
Coast. Western trough is expected to be the major weather feature
for the upcoming weekend.

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 300 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

The West Coast trough mentioned earlier will likely produce a
prolonged period of unsettled weather for the region from Sunday
into early next week. Both the GFS and Euro 00z runs show similar
solutions in lingering the upper low over the central part of the
nation during this time.

&&

Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 629 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Scattered showers with VFR conditions moving through affecting
taf sites initially...but should end at klnk before 14z and koma
by 15z. Then winds become the primary concern for several hours
with sustained southeasterly speeds at 23 to 26 knots with gusts
into the 30s. A cold front will move into the area later in the
period...which will trigger thunderstorms and a sharp wind shift.
Storms at kofk by 23z with cold front in by 03z. Storms affecting
klnk by 03z with front arrival by 07z. Storms affecting koma by
06z with front arrival by 10z.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for nez011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
088-089.

Iowa...Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon
for iaz043.

&&

$$

Short term...fobert
long term...fobert
aviation...Dewald