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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
312 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Short term...(tonight through saturday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Front is making steady progress into the western half of the forecast
area. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the middle to upper 60s...and
temperatures behind it have dropped into the 40s with 30s not too far
away. Windy and dry conditions continue ahead of the front...thus
will continue the wind and fire weather headlines for extreme southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa...but will trim back a few counties where
the front will continue to usher in higher dewpoints. It's also windy
behind the front...but just below advisory criteria. Will probably
leave the forecast dry this evening...although there may still be
a few sprinkles in northeast Nebraska through 6pm.

For tonight...winds decrease as high pressure ridge builds into
the area. The next wave of interest...currently moving through the
4 corners region should remain south of the forecast area on
Thursday remaining just south of the region across Kansas and
Missouri...while northerly surface flow becomes southeast. Overall
poor mixing on Thursday...with below normal highs expected.

A weak wave moving out of northwest flow could trigger a few
showers late Thursday night into early Friday in our far northern
zones...but better forcing exists further north. Return breezy
southerly flow develops which should help boost temperatures into the
middle/upper 60s. Strong southerly flow continues Friday night and
Saturday morning ahead of the next cold front...which is forecast
to arrive at peak heating Saturday afternoon. Generally felt the
NAM was too fast with it's front arriving about 6 to 12 hours too
soon. Will keep Saturday morning dry...with thunderstorm chances
increasing along the front Saturday afternoon.

Long term...(saturday night through wednesday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Thunderstorms should be likely Saturday night as the front drift
southward toward i80. There is some instability...and given
seasonal trends...there's probably at least a small chance for
isolated severe storms...although frontal convergence is somewhat
weak. Model discrepancies manifest by Sunday and beyond as GFS is
progressive with the front moving south...but European model (ecmwf) is
significantly slower...which would keep precipitation chances well into
Sunday and even into Sunday night and Monday. In the absence of
any upstream kicker...am inclined to go with a slightly slower
movement of the European model (ecmwf). By Monday...GFS hints at another weak front
moving into the area...but confidence is low overall. Ridging
aloft builds in for Tuesday. There is a weak wave depicted by both
models...thus could be a slight chance of something developing in
northeast Nebraska. Temperatures also warm back in to the
middle/upper 70s by the end of the period as well.

&&

Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

VFR conditions are currently in place...but short-term models are
trending a little more pessimistic with ceilings by late afternoon
and into the evening. Have included a tempo MVFR ceiling at
kofk...and scattered mention at koma/klnk...through the evening.
Have kept scattered mention until around daybreak...as models hold
on to moisture around 1500-2500ft through the night. Any residual
moisture should clear away through the morning. Winds will remain
very gusty out of the southwest ahead of the front today...with
winds out of the northwest and not quite as gusty behind. Have
speeds slackening to around 12-15kt at all sites later this
evening...then decreasing further in the morning as surface high
pressure builds into the area.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...red flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for nez045-052-053-
067-068-090>093.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for nez045-052-053-067-
068-090>093.

Red flag warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for nez051-065-
066-078-088-089.

Iowa...red flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for iaz055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for iaz055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.

&&

$$

Short term...Dewald
long term...Dewald
aviation...Mayes