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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1056 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Short term...(tonight through monday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Early afternoon surface analysis indicated a ridge axis extndg from
central Minnesota into western Kansas. This is expected to develop southeast
tonight and allowing for return flow to develop over the central
and northern plains into the day on Sat. After one more seasonably
cool night...especially in SW Iowa...we are still expecting
temperatures to be well above normal through the weekend. This
will be in response to the middle and upper level ridge over the Pacific
northwest this afternoon flattening and expanding eastward in the western High
Plains. Mixing will be a bit limited on Sat with the rapid
warming aloft...and surface winds still having more of a
southerly component. Nevertheless highs well above normal are
expected on Sat with 70s in SW Iowa and lower 80s in northeast Nebraska.
A surface trough will move through the area on Sat night/Sunday and
produce more of a westerly boundary layer wind on sun allowing for
record highs with better mixing expected. Have increased highs a
touch most places and currently we have around 90 along the MO
river to lower 90s in central Nebraska. With dew points dropping on sun
with the mixing we will likely see very high to extreme fire
danger and will start mentioning this potential in the severe weather potential statement this
afternoon. The surface cold front will move through on Sunday night with
gusty northwest winds expected on Monday...along with cooler but
still above normal temperatures.

Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Typical Fall weather is expected to continue through the extended
period with dry weather and a number of weak weather systems
zipping across the northern plains allowing for weak fronts to move
through the County Warning Area with periods of warm air advection in between. Current long
range guidance is in general agreement that these fronts will
occur on Tuesday and Wednesday with a bit stronger surface ridge building in
for Thursday and Friday.


Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the taf cycle. Light south
winds tonight will increase to around 12-15kt with gusts to
around 20-25kt by mid-morning...then decrease again to around 10kt
at sunset.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...boustead
long term...boustead

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