Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
347 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 346 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015



Shortwave trough over the Pacific northwest region remains feature of interest
and will be the focus for convective activity later this afternoon.
Current surface observation already showing area of low pressure organizing over
the northern plains along with Gulf moisture...60 dew points...pushing up
through Texas into OK.

Latest rap13 is placing the leading edge of the cold front moving
into the northern County Warning Area around 21z with Stout low level Theta-E advection racing up
ahead of the boundary. And with daytime heating...destabilization will
quickly allow convection to fire and intensify as the front pushes
south. With ki around 40/precipitable water values 1... environment will be
moisture rich and make it quite probable several locations...mainly
along/south of I-80 will see rainfall amounts of an inch or more
associated with stronger storms passing through. In addition...rap13 is
suggesting that effective shear will be on the low end for producing
severe storms and suspect the hail threat will be isolated in
nature.

Thursday night/Friday morning...GFS/NAM/ecm all point to the southern County Warning Area
for possible precipitation associated with strong 300k upglide/low conditions pressure
def. Situation seems worthy enough to at least go with low end
probability of precipitation.

As for temperatures...a quite noticeable downward trend will be realized
with highs going from the low/middle 80s today to the low 50s on
Friday.

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 346 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

GFS and ecm in rather good agreement the primary large scale feature
will be an amplified trough forming over the western Continental U.S. Early next week
with dry conditions at least through next Sunday. GFS/ecm/CMC all show
impressive low level moisture return into the Central Plains with precipitation
development along a warm front Sunday night...then again on Monday
in association with eastward advancing dry line. Forecast pop forecast looks
reasonable for now so no major changes planned.

As for temperatures...mex and ecmmos meteograms are showing considerable
differences with the mex pushing highs at koma into the m60s while
ecmmos is much cooler with low/middle 50s. Prefer to go with warmer mex
guidance.

&&

Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1205 am CDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015

Expect VFR conditions through at least 12z Wednesday. Models are
hinting at potential for some ceilings between 1500 and 3000 feet
between 14z and 19z. For now...just mentioned a scattered layer.
Thunderstorms and rain should be approaching kofk by middle to late afternoon Wednesday and
for both koma and klnk by middle evening.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Dee
long term...Dee
aviation...Miller

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations