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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
629 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 245 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Initial concern will be development and extent of stratus and fog
again this morning. Lower ceilings and visibility more limited at 07z than
was the case the past couple of mornings. Will continue with a
mention of patchy fog for early part of the morning otherwise
expect earlier dissipation by middle morning with mostly sunny for
the rest of the day with winds increasing in advance of
approaching cold front.

Not a lot of push with this front with models stalling it just to
the northwest of the forecast area this afternoon through tonight
then wash it out on Tuesday. Some small chance of a few
thunderstorms Tuesday night as middle level warm advection moves
across the area and low level jet kicks in. Some lingering small
chance into early part of Wednesday morning for mainly southern
parts of the area where weak middle level instability remains in
place. Similar setup again for Wednesday night but mainly for
eastern parts of the area.

Morning low clouds and fog look less likely during the period with
warmer temperatures finally moving into the area. Impact of any
overnight convection will have to be watched but trend is toward
some lower 90s in some spots on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 245 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Upper pattern transitions to less amplified flow during the period
as upper trough over the northwest gradually moves across the
northern part of the country and flattens the ridge. Some
uncertainty in timing between the GFS and Euro as another surface
front hangs up across the region awaiting the kick from the upper
trough before moving through the area. This pattern will allow
some chance of showers and thunderstorms starting as early as
Friday and continuing through the extended Labor Day Holiday


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 622 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Infrared satellite imagery and surface observation revealing low level ceilings pretty much
prevailing over eastern Nebraska this morning. However...expect conditions
to improve to VFR from LIFR in the next couple hours. Otherwise
VFR conditions prevail the remainder of the forecast period.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...fobert
long term...fobert

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