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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1125 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

issued at 1125 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Still appears to be some small potential for light mixed precipitation this
afternoon down near the Kansas and MO borders. Updated grids and text
products to blend in with offices to the south. Otherwise...only
made a few minor changes to the forecast for the rest of the day.


Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 351 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Winter weather system is exiting the area...with wintry temperatures
left behind. Subjective 00z upper air analysis indicates elongated
upper-level trough extending from near Hudson Bay through ND/Montana and
toward NV/CA. Southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of the trough
extended across the plains...with 165kt jet streak north of the
Great Lakes and 130kt jet streak in the southwest US embedded within
a large swath of 100kt+ jet winds. At 850mb...tight temperature
gradient extended from the Great Lakes across Iowa into eastern
Kansas...with 9.8c at ktop and -4.5 degrees at koma. Moisture axis
extended ahead of the front from the Southern Plains toward the
southern Great Lakes.

Main forecast concern is return of precipitation...likely in another
messy wintry mix...from Saturday into early next week. May see
light precipitation linger near the Kansas-Nebraska border this
morning...though most measurable precipitation should remain
south/southeast of the County Warning Area. Otherwise...cloudy skies south to
partly cloudy north...and continued north winds and cold air
advection...will make quite a blustery day for today. Low-level
moistening is prognosticated into Saturday morning...but with a dry middle-
level layer above it...concern is that there may be a freezing
drizzle potential. Kept measurable probability of precipitation in for collaboration
sake...but think chances are actually better that it would be more
of a freezing drizzle Saturday/Saturday night and perhaps even into
Sunday. Later Sunday and Sunday night...profiles finally
saturate...and wintry mix then depends on the temperature profile
rather than saturation. May still be a mix until later on
Monday...with precipitation eventually changing to snow. Confidence
in precipitation type and timing is quite low...especially for being
within 3 days.

Have bumped up min temperatures through Monday...with potential for
lingering clouds and low-level moisture at night along with a lack
of a snowpack. With maximum temperatures in the 30s...should see little
diurnal temperature movement.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 351 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

In wake of whatever wintry mess falls through Monday night...the
rest of the week looks drier. Cannot rule out some lingering very
light snow/precipitation on Tuesday in the northern/northeastern
County Warning Area...but the bulk of it will be off to the east...and dry weather
will follow for the rest of the work week. With westerly 850mb winds
and increasing 500mb heights...temperatures should moderate slowly
through the week.


Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1125 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

MVFR ceilings may linger for a while this afternoon...especially around
klnk...but visibilities should be VFR. Middle clouds will gradually decrease
this evening...then thicken back up Saturday. North winds will
slowly diminish...especially after sunset.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Mayes
long term...Mayes

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