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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
530 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 147 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

WV imagery revealing an elongated upper trough extending from central
Canada to just off the Southern California coastline with northern segment shortwave
trough over the northern rockies and closed southern circulation over Southern California. At
the surface...leading edge of inbound cold front currently extending
across eastern ND...SW South Dakota...northestern Wyoming with regional radar mosaic already
showing area of snow just ahead of the front over South Dakota and the Nebraska
panh within area of Stout 295k upglide.

Main concern continues to be where/when precipitation type change will occur
as the cold front sweeps into the County Warning Area this morning.

Given dry low layer per oax sounding...initial precipitation activity should be
be in the form of drizzle/freezing drizzle over the southern County Warning Area until
influx of boundary layer moisture moves in from the south to saturate the
column out for rain or freezing rain to commence. Meanwhile to the
north...gfslamp/hrrr put the cold front moving into the County Warning Area sometime
between 13z-14z this morning. Weather type algorithm is showing -S/freezing rain
initially before change to -S/freezing rain mix shortly after 12z...then all
snow between 15z-18z. There will only be a brief period for any snow
accumulations to occur and at this point believe most of the northern County Warning Area
will see less than an inch. Given all this...lack of significant
snowfall/only minor roadway icing...no headlines planned at this
time. Also...surface winds will be gusty but probably not enough to
consider issuing headline for meeting advection criteria.

However...will emphasize the deteriorating conditions though in the
severe weather potential statement.

Otherwise dry through the rest of the near term periods with a warming
trend beginning in earnest on Thursday.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 147 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

No major changes need in the extended periods as both mex/ecmmos forecast
dry weather with a nice temperature rebound next weekend and above normal highs
all the into the early part of next week.

&&

Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 528 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Messy conditions this morning with freezing drizzle possible with
IFR conditions...and even LIFR conditions at klnk. Cold front
arrives and switches winds to the northwest and substantially
increase to 20 to 35 knots at kofk by 14z...klnk by 15z and koma
by 16z. VFR conditions develop by 19z at kofk and 21-21z at
klnk/koma.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Dee
long term...Dee
aviation...Dewald

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