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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
605 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 320 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term concerns today will mainly be fire weather
related...otherwise temperatures through Thursday.

The main 500 mb trough is over the Great Lakes and this feature will
continue to shift east as the plains remains in northwest flow
aloft. Within this flow...a fast moving weak shortwave over
Montana will dive southeast. This clipper system will warm
temperatures up ahead of it and dry out dewpoints over parts of
eastern Nebraska...and switch the winds around to the northwest.
There is a pocket of 30-40kt winds aloft that weaken as they move
over the forecast area. Lapse rates are not steep...but there is
decent cold air advection. It will not be nearly as windy as
Monday...however the hirres rap/hrrr and the GFS have a brief
period where winds increase into the 10 to 20 miles per hour gusting to 20 to
30 miles per hour. Temperatures should warm into the 70s to lower 80s. See
fire weather section below for details.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with highs in upper 60s to
upper 70s.

Another clipper passes through Wednesday night. Most of the models
are dry with this feature...however the ec has a stronger
shortwave and does generate some Post frontal precipitation
Thursday with the colder. Begin to increase clouds middle and high Wednesday
night. Highs Thursday should be in the 60s near the South Dakota
border and 70s along and south of i80.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 320 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Colder high pressure builds in for Friday morning and mentioned
frost with lows in the 30s. The cold Canadian high remains over
the area Friday into Saturday morning before retreating to the
east. Highs Friday should only be in the 50s to lower 60s.
Depending on how quickly the high retreats...Saturday morning
should again be chilly with lows in the 30s and patchy frost.

A middle level ridge then builds in Saturday night and Sunday. A
leading shortwave trough could result in showers Monday...however
the better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms is Monday
night and Tuesday.


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 605 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds will
increase late morning or early afternoon then decrease in the
early evening.


Fire weather...
issued at 320 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Very high and extreme fire danger conditions are forecast today
for parts of eastern Nebraska. Dewpoints will lower to the upper
20s to middle temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Northwest winds will not be as strong as Monday...however
should increase to 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts 20 to 30 miles per hour. Lowest
relative humidities are forecast range from 15 to 25 percent.
Very dry conditions continue and along with harvest
activities...therefore a red flag warning has been issued for
parts of the area.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this
evening for nez016-017-030-031-042-050-065-078.



Short term...zapotocny
long term...zapotocny
fire weather...zapotocny

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