Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1146 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 207 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Precipitation type and timing continue to be the main forecast concern
for today into Monday. Winter Storm Watch will continue across
much of the area late Sunday night into Monday.

Radar showing some light precipitation tracking across the far southeast
corner of Nebraska into a portion of southwest Iowa early this
morning. Although limited impact indicated there this morning...
with temperatures either side of freezing will let current
advisory continue until expiration at 6 am to cover the current
precipitation which may continue into the first part of the morning.
Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing in the southeast
by middle to late morning with rain becoming the primary precipitation type
for the remainder of the day.

More widespread activity will begin to spread northward this
afternoon and tonight as base of the upper level system over the
intermountain west begins to pivot towards the Central Plains
region. Southeast half of the forecast area should see mainly
light rain developing during the day as temperatures climb above
freezing with a rain snow mix possible in the northeast. Models
suggest initial primary band of precipitation should track across
southeast parts of the area tonight with rain changing back to
a mix of freezing rain or sleet eventually. Northwest half should
see primarily light snow overnight with limited accumulations.

Main precipitation event is expected to occur on Monday but temperatures
will again be a primary concern regarding type. A period of snow
is possible Monday morning over east central Nebraska and west
central Iowa depending on strength of dynamic cooling as area
comes under influence of jet maximum across eastern Kansas. Latest
models track surface low across the southeast corner of Nebraska
with milder inflow over the southeast part of the area ahead of
the system. Latest forecast has temperatures reaching the middle 30s
by afternoon allowing a changeover back to rain or a rain snow
mix before the colder air comes in on the backside of the system
late in the afternoon and early evening. Colder air across
northwest half of the area will result in primarily snow on Monday
with latest indications of snowfall in the 2 to 4 inch range on
Monday and a total of 5 to 7 inches by Tuesday morning. Some
lingering light snow in the north Monday night and Tuesday

Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
issued at 207 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Dry weather with a warming trend still indicated during the
period as broad upper ridge moves into the region behind the
departing storm system. Above normal highs indicated for southern
parts of the area by late in the week with northern areas more
dependent on snow cover.


Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1141 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Extremely difficult taf period with low forecaster confidence on
precipitation type. Ceilings should continue to drop as area of
drizzle with IFR ceilings continues to move into the area.
Surface temperatures continue to hover right around or just above
freezing so should maintain a liquid precipitation type into the evening
however kofk will be the exception but precipitation should be light there.
Surface temperatures are expected to only move a few degrees above
and below the freezing mark. This makes precipitation type forecasting
incredibly difficult...especially through 18z Monday. Have given
it our best shot with forecast soundings indicating a mix of
sleet and freezing rain overnight...with a transition over to rain
again possible after sunrise for koma and klnk. Winds will be
fairly light with no deep cold air moving into the area until
Monday evening.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for

Iowa...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for



Short term...fobert
long term...fobert

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations