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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
617 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Northwest flow aloft continues from the Canadian rockies into the
Ohio Valley. One weak disturbance within this flow across the High
Plains could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to northeast
Nebraska this morning. However moisture is lacking due to overnight
convection. Moisture will return to the area this afternoon and
evening allowing for another chance for precipitation in southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

A better chance for showers and storms will come Tuesday and
Wednesday...as a surface low slowly drifts across the Central
Plains. Rain chances will be aided by warm air advection ahead of
the system along a baroclinic zone...as well as ample 850-700mb
moisture.

There remains a marginal risk for severe storms both today and
Tuesday...however the best chance for severe weather appears to be
Tuesday and Wednesday. By midweek around 2500 j/kg instability will
be in place in addition to ample moisture and about 30 to 40kts of
shear. Although cloud cover will keep surface temperatures
relatively low for this time of year and could inhibit
instability.

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 335 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

A middle level ridge will be in place across the Southern Plains
through the remainder of the week. A few weak waves will continue
to ride along the ridge bringing shower chances to the area. However
temperatures will remain cooler...in the lower 80s. This will
continue to inhibit instability and reduce severe chances.

&&

Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 615 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Generally VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving southeast into
northeast Nebraska will affect kofk early in the period...then
could reach koma and klnk by middle to late morning. Then a dry
period is forecast much of the afternoon with the chance for
thunderstorms returning to all taf sites after 06z. VFR ceilings near
fl040 will spread across koma/klnk early...then general middle level
ceilings between fl080 and fl120 are forecast outside of
precipitation.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...kg
long term...kg
aviation...dergan

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