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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
701 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 305 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Precipitation chances today and then temperatures the next few days will be
the main forecast concerns.

Fairly widespread area of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will continue to move east
this morning...associated with shortwave trough moving through the
region. Water vapor satellite imagery loop in combination with
recent 500 mb RUC model initializations showed a fairly strong
wave for this time of year. 12 hour height falls at 500 mb were up
to about 50 meters. Atmosphere was also quite moist. 700 mb
dewpoints of 4-8 degrees c were noted from the desert SW up into
western Kansas and southwestern NE at 00z last evening...and forecast soundings
suggest precipitable water values are around 2 inches or more early this morning.

Although the strongest area of lift and highest moisture will be
shifting east of the local area...kept some probability of precipitation going much of the
day. A weaker area of lift should spread southeastward over the region and
forecast soundings still show some instability. Will keep rain
chances mainly at 20-30 percent after early morning activity ends.
Recent hrrr runs and even the 00z NAM suggest previous scenario...
with at least isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible.

Lingered a slight chance of thunderstorms and rain in our far southeastern zones early this
evening...then it should be mainly dry through Sunday. Kept some
mention of fog tonight with light winds and both GFS MOS and NAM
MOS suggesting at least patchy fog late tonight into Sat morning.
Did not mention fog Saturday night...but surface ridge axis will be
close to the area and will need to monitor. Return flow with S/southeast
surface winds should then strengthen Sunday.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 305 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Middle level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico up into the Central
Plains and a trough from western Canada into the northwestern United States
will be the main features at the start of this period. Ridge will
slide slowly southeastward as the trough to the northwest digs. Weak ripples
moving northeastward through the region could bring some thunderstorms and rain...with best
chances being Tuesday night and again Thursday night.

Temperatures should be at or above normal over the area for most
or all of next week.


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 656 am CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Variable conditions expected during the period. IFR ceilings located
under upper low over northeast Nebraska and behind cold front into
south central Nebraska. Lower ceilings should spread east behind front
through 18z with ceilings improving to MVFR through 00z. VFR
conditions then develop after 00z but a period of LIFR ceilings and
visibility possible after 09z at all three sites.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Miller
long term...Miller

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