Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
530 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 250 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Temperatures will continue to be the primary focus in the short

Pocket of very warm air will be in place across eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa this morning in advance of low pressure moving
across the northern plains toward the lower Missouri Valley today.
Good potential for record highs today with temperatures starting
off in the middle to upper 30s early this morning. Southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa will be in the warm sector the longest prior to
the arrival of the cold front middle to late afternoon and may see
temperatures approaching 70...especially in the far southeast.

Gusty northwest winds will spread across the area along with the
colder air during the evening with winds expected to continue
into Thursday morning. No headlines at this time but day shift
will need to consider if mav guidance stays consistent in next
model run. Not as warm Thursday as high pressure builds into the
region with diminishing winds in the afternoon. High drifts to
the east Thursday night and Friday as system over the southwest
part of the nation begins to approach the region.

Ice jams on the lower Platte River continue to produce flooding
from western Douglas County into southern Sarpy and northern Cass
County this morning.

Long term...(friday night through tuesday)
issued at 250 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Timing of the southwest system will be the main concern early in
the extended period with 00z models slowing the movement into the
area from previous runs. Precipitation type also comes into play as a
cold front bisects the forecast area on Saturday with some
potential for freezing precipitation especially across the south half
of the area into Saturday evening before colder air moves into the
low levels and precipitation changes to snow there later Saturday night.
Snow diminishes on Sunday with surge of colder air moving in
during the day. Cold air hangs on through Monday before warmer
temperatures return Tuesday. Some uncertainty for early next week however
as models differ on timing of the warm air return with GFS slower
than the Euro.


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 525 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

VFR conditions early in the period with southeast winds less than
12 knots. Winds become southwest by 17-21z...then northwest by
21-24z as a cold front begins to move into the area. Once the
front arrives...winds substantially increase to 15 to 25 knots
sustained by 29/02-03z...with gusts up to 35 to 38 knots. Could
also see MVFR ceilings develop by 04-06z.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...fobert
long term...fobert

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations