Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
944 am PST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
Synopsis...one more warm day then temperatures will gradually
trend cooler through the the rest of the week. Outside of a slight
chance for rain over the far North Bay Friday and Friday night,
dry weather is forecast into at least the start of next week.
Discussion...as of 9:15 am PST Tuesday...clear skies and light
winds are being reported around the forecast area this morning.
The current satellite water vapour image is showing yesterday's
ridge of high pressure shifting east and compressing a bit as a
storm system pushes into the Pacific northwest. The current
visible satellite image does show high clouds advecting into our
area ahead of this system. Temperatures will be warm once again
today however the high clouds and afternoon sea breeze should
help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than observed
The 1200z gfs40 and 0000z European model (ecmwf) have initialized well with the
current conditions and remain in good agreement through the
weekend. Both models slide the previously mentioned storm system
towards the Pacific north west over the next few days...displacing
the ridge of high pressure currently in place over California.
This will result in cooler more seasonable temperatures for the
second half of this work week into the weekend. Both forecast
models continue to advertise a dry forecast through the weekend.
The exception being a slight chance of precipitation in far
northern Sonoma County on Friday.
Aviation...as of 9:50 am PST Tuesday...high confidence VFR. Light
winds. Some high clouds approaching from the west will bring few-
scattered at or above 20k feet above ground level through today. Increasing onshore flow
by the afternoon.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.
Sfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR.
Climate...record highs for Tuesday...
City name Feb 9th high and year
Kentfield 74 in 1945
San Rafael 70 in 2006
Napa 75 in 2006
San Francisco 74 in 2006
sfo Airport 73 in 2006
Oakland museum 74 in 2006
Oakland Airport 69 in 2006
Richmond 75 in 1988
Livermore 77 in 1917
San Jose 74 in 2006
Gilroy 78 in 2012
Santa Cruz 78 in 2006
Salinas 84 in 2006
Salinas Airport 81 in 2006
King City 86 in 2006
Marine...as of 08:43 PM PST Monday...a strong area of high
pressure over the Great Basin will maintain light southeast winds
across the coastal waters. Offshore winds will be gusty in the
vicinity of the coastal mountain gaps. Onshore flow will return
Tuesday as the high weakens.
Public forecast: Larry
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