Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
833 PM PST Friday Mar 7 2014
Synopsis...high pressure will maintain dry conditions and
seasonably mild temperatures across the Bay area through Saturday.
A warm front will move into the North Bay Sunday with a chance of
light rain. Rain chances will spread southward into the greater
Bay area on Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the coast
resulting in mild and dry weather Tuesday through Friday.
Discussion...as of 8:30 PM PST Friday...high pressure continues
to build off the California coast this evening. Other than a few
high clouds skies will remain mainly clear through tonight. Patchy
fog possible across inland valleys by morning. Mild temperatures
anticipated again tonight with slightly above normal temperatures
expected Saturday as high pressure remains in place. Temperatures
are forecast to warm 3 to 5 degrees Saturday with highs in the 60s
and 70s expected across the board.
From previous discussion...the next storm system expected to
affect northern California will start to spread clouds across the
North Bay late in the day Saturday. Warm-frontal rains are
forecast to begin Sunday morning in the North Bay...with the
heaviest rain expected to remain north of Sonoma County. The warm
front will persist over the North Bay through Sunday night. Then a
shortwave trough will finally move the rain southward into the
greater Bay area by Monday morning with little or no rain as far
south as Monterey. Storm totals over the far North Bay are
expected to range from 0.50-1.00 inch...with 0.10-0.25 possible
for the greater Bay area by Monday afternoon. Much lighter rain
amounts are expected for the South Bay and Monterey Bay region.
After the system on Monday passes through...strong high pressure
will once again build over the area for much of next week. Expect
mostly clear skies with high temperatures trending above normal...
plenty of readings in the 70s and probably even some 80s.
The latest 8-14 day outlooks from the climate prediction center
keep all of California and Nevada painted under moderate-to-high
probability for below normal precipitation for the time frame from
March 15th through the 21st...with all of the western U.S.
Expected to be warmer than usual during that time frame.
Aviation...as of 3:45 PM PST Friday...VFR conditions expected
through at least early evening at all terminals. Light onshore
flow and a developing marine layer will likely result in
areas of low clouds late this evening and overnight. MVFR/IFR ceilings
possible by late evening near Monterey Bay and by late Friday
night around sf Bay. Medium confidence. Clearing in all areas
expected by 16z Saturday morning.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions are expected through Friday
evening. Low clouds may develop after midnight Friday night and
continue until about 16z but confidence is only low to medium.
Seabreeze around 15 knots through early evening...gradually
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through
at least 03z on Friday evening. IFR ceilings may develop later in the
evening...but then clear late Friday night as light easterly winds
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 am
Public forecast: CW
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