Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
450 am PDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
Synopsis...dry weather will persist through at least Friday with
temperatures generally below seasonal averages. An upper level low
will bring the possibility of showers this weekend.
Discussion...as of 3:20 am PDT Tuesday...overnight satellite
shows a similar setup to last night with many breaks in the
stratus. Although we will likely see an increase in clouds until
sunrise...should see sunshine even to many parts of the coast by
afternoon. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be 3 to 4c warmer today
which will help to boost highs a bit. Temperatures will be generally 60s
at the coast with 70s inland. Little change is forecast for
By Thursday an upper level low will drop down from the north and
be overhead. The low will track down to Southern California on
Friday before slowly tracking to the northeast over the weekend.
Moisture will initially be well outside of our area so the only
impact on Thursday will be to lower temperatures a few degrees. By late Friday
wrap around moisture will begin to approach eastern and northern
portions of our area. Instability will increase so any moisture
that is able to make it to our County Warning Area could even produce some
thunderstorms. Girds were slightly adjusted to put at least a
mention of showers over the North Bay plus the eastern quarter of
our area for the weekend. Any rain that does fall should be very
Temperatures are still forecast to warm back to at least normal readings
by next work week as weak ridge of high pressure builds into our
area and 850 mb temperatures rise into the 18 to 20c range. Offshore flow
is still not expected so the bulk of the warming will be inland.
By Tuesday many spots well away from the coast will be in the 80s
with a few lower 90s possible. Coastal locations will generally be
in the middle 60s to middle 70s.
Aviation...as of 04:36 am PDT Tuesday...stratus deck continues to
fill in around the region early this morning. Ceilings are somewhat
low inside sf Bay...at or below 1k feet. Even saw some drizzle on the sfo
cam. Elsewhere...MVFR ceilings prevail for ksjc and klvk.
Interestingly...sky clear remain for ksts and mry Bay. However recent
satellite shows some ceilings poss developing.
Vicinity of ksfo...low ceilings lingering this morning below 1k feet.
Will forecast ceilings lifting 18-19z and VFR this afternoon. Gusty
onshore flow this afternoon with some gusts up to 30 knots.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...tricky forecast as skies remain
clear with patchy ceilings on the fringes of both kmry and ksns. Will
forecast a tempo group to allow for some patchy ceilings. VFR this afternoon.
Marine...as of 02:56 am PDT Tuesday...high pressure will
gradually build over the eastern Pacific today and tonight. As a
result...moderate to locally strong northwest winds will develop
along the central coast. The gusty winds will persist through
Friday with hazardous conditions and steep wind waves.
... Pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm from 1 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm from 6 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm from 6 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm from 6 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm from 6 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 6 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 1 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay from 2 PM
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay north of the Bay Bridge from 2 PM
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay south of the Bay Bridge from 2 PM
Public forecast: Bell
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