Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
849 PM PDT Monday Jul 27 2015
..very warm to hot inland temperatures expected from Tuesday
through Thursday of this week....
Synopsis...a significant warm-up is forecast to continue across
inland areas through midweek...and more modest temperature
increases closer to the coast as strong high pressure builds over
the region. Temperatures cool slightly late in the week along
with increased monsoon moisture approaching from the south.
Discussion...as of 8:45 PM PDT Monday...surface high pressure
ridge extending into the Great Basin from the Pacific brought
light offshore flow to the area today. As a result low clouds were
limited to the southern coastal waters and even these burned off
early. Temperatures were 3-5 degrees warmer at the coast and 8-10
degrees warmer inland.
An upper level high will build over the western states Tuesday
and will continue through the end of the week. Offshore flow
will continue at the surface through Thursday so temperatures are
expected to climb another 5-10 degrees inland Tuesday. Coastal
areas will have more modest warming but many places will see
highs in the 70s. Hardly any stratus is expected the next couple
of nights. It is not a strong offshore flow so strong winds in the
mountains will not be an issue.
Wednesday will be just as warm as Tuesday. Cooling is expected
along the coast Thursday as a weak southerly onshore flow
develops along the coast. Cooler air will then wedge its way
inland by Friday with the marine layer deepening. Some monsoonal
moisture will work its way into California but convection is
expected to remain east of the district.
The medium range models generally maintain dry weather conditions
heading into next week along with temperatures slightly above
Aviation...as of 4:50 PM PDT Monday...clear skies will prevail
across the region through the forecast period as a thermal trough
remains positioned along the California coast. Light offshore flow
is expected through midweek as the thermal trough shift west. High
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. A moderate seabreeze will reach 15 to 20 knots this
afternoon with gusts to 25 knots.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. A moderate seabreeze will reach 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon and may be gusty at times.
Marine...as of 03:00 PM PDT Monday...a broad thermal trough
positioned over California will maintain gusty northerly winds
through this evening. The gusty winds will produce locally steep
wind waves. Winds will decrease tonight and Wednesday as the
thermal trough slides west...relaxing the surface pressure
gradient and improving sea conditions.
... Bay until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...mry Bay until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 am
Public forecast: west pi
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