Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
415 am PDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015
Synopsis...dry weather will persist through the week with
temperatures generally below seasonal averages. An upper level low
will bring a slight possibility of showers this weekend.
Discussion...as of 3:08 am PDT Wednesday...satellite imagery
shows high clouds moving from west to east across northern
California...and should be east of the district this morning. The
marine layer depth is currently around 2000 feet...and some low
clouds can be seen near the coast below the cirrus. Temperatures
today are expected to range from the upper 50s/lower 60s near the
ocean to the 60s and 70s inland...with warmest inland locations
warming to the lower 80s.
An upper level trough is prognosticated to deepen along the West Coast by
this evening...and an upper low is forecast to form over the Bay
area by Thursday. This is expected to increase onshore flow as
well as the marine layer. Cooler temperatures and stronger west
winds...especially near the coast...are expected. The low is
forecast to skirt the coast to the south through the remainder of
the week...and then cuts east by early Saturday. As it does...some
moisture could get entrained around the low as far west as the eastern
portions of the County Warning Area. Thus...the best chances of precipitation occurring
across our area...albeit low...is late in the weekend.
Temperatures will remain seasonably cool...but warm slightly by
early next week.
Aviation...as of 4:10 am PDT Wednesday...high clouds are finally
peeling away from the Bay area revealing the low stratus below.
The north-S gradient has eroding much of the stratus along the coast.
However...some patchy stratus remains from sf peninsula southward.
That being said...ceilings around 1000-1500 will be possible through
18-19z this morning. VFR this afternoon with gusty onshore flow.
Ceilings return tonight.
Vicinity of ksfo...MVFR ceilings around 1k feet will impact koak and
ksfo this morning. Given the north-S gradient and patchy nature will
allow for a scattered of ceilings 18-19z this am. Gust up to 30 knots poss this afternoon.
Ksfo bridge approach... much less cloud cover this morning over
the approach. A few patchy ceilings will be possible...but better
chance for ceilings north of approach near the runways.
Monterey Bay area terminals...ceilings around 1k feet impacting mry
Bay through 18-19z. VFR this afternoon with ceilings returning tonight.
Marine...as of 2:14 am PDT Wednesday...moderate to locally
strong winds will continue over the coastal waters today as high
pressure remains over the eastern Pacific. The strong winds will
produce fresh swell and steep wind waves. Winds will gradually
decrease Friday and over the weekend.
... Pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay north of the Bay Bridge from noon
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay south of the Bay Bridge from noon
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay from noon
Public forecast: Sims
Visit US at weather.Gov/sanfrancisco
Follow US on facebook, twitter, and youtube at: