Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
928 PM PST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Synopsis...high pressure building across the West Coast will
maintain dry weather conditions and above average temperatures
through the upcoming weekend. A change in the weather pattern will
then bring a storm system and associated precipitation chances to
the region by the middle of next week.
Discussion...as of 9:00 PM PST Wednesday...upper level high just
off the California coast allowed temperatures to warm into the 60s
and low 70s across the district today. Some places warmed up as
much as 15-18 degrees over yesterday. Surface high pressure building
over the Great Basin will bring a dry offshore flow to the area
through Friday and will result in mostly clear skies.
The upper high will move over the state Thursday and Friday
bringing a few degrees of warming each day. The upper high will
weaken Saturday and Sunday for slightly cooler temperatures.
Offshore flow weakens as well so there may be night and morning low
clouds developing along the coast.
The flow will slowly transition to a zonal flow by the middle of
next week. There are differences between the medium range models
as far as rain chances go. There is a chance that a weather system
will move into the district bringing a chance of rain or the
system could pass to the north or stay offshore as a cutoff low.
For this reason the latest forecast only mentions a slight of rain
Aviation...as of 9:28 PM PST Wednesday...high pressure remains in
position over California this evening...maintaining clear skies and
light offshore winds at the terminals. Currently...we are
experiencing some technical problems so we are only receiving some of
the new forecast model data and none of the current satellite data.
But under this particular weather pattern there should be no
weather surprises during the next 24 to 36 hours. Will be going
with a persistence forecast for the current taf package.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Other than the afternoon sea breeze light
winds are expected through the period.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR. Other than the afternoon sea
breeze light winds are expected through the period.
Marine...as of 09:24 PM PST Wednesday...generally light offshore
winds will prevail through much of the forecast period as high
pressure dominates the West Coast. Offshore winds may be locally
strong and gusty near coastal mountain passes and gaps. A mixed
swell featuring a moderate period south westerly component will
impact the coastal waters as well.
Public forecast: west pi
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