Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
1032 PM PDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Synopsis...a ridge will rebuild across the eastern Pacific during
the remainder of the work week and bring dry conditions across the
region. In addition, a warming trend will begin midweek and
persist through the upcoming weekend with afternoon temperatures
in the 70s and 80s area wide by Saturday and Sunday.
Discussion...as of 9:00 PM PDT Monday...a frontal system moved
through the area this morning bringing up to one-tenth of an inch
in the North Bay and San Francisco. The rest of the sfo Bay area
received brief light rain but most of the amounts were only trace
amounts. Temperatures were a few degrees cooler across the area
An offshore flow will develop tonight as upper level ridge sets up
off the coast and extends into the Pacific northwest while an
upper level low develops over Nevada. Northeast winds gusting to
35 miles per hour can be expected in the north and East Bay hills tonight
through Wednesday morning remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria.
Winds will decrease over the area Wednesday as the low moves south
and focuses strong offshore flow on Southern California.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will rise 3-5 degrees over
Medium range models consistent in deepening a trough along 150w
pushing the ridge over our County Warning Area by this weekend. This will push
temperatures will warm up more by the end of the week and should
reach the upper 70s and 80s in the valleys this weekend.
Dry weather is expected through early next week. After that long
range models show lots of uncertainty regarding rain chances.
Whatever rain chances there are...there is no indication of any
big drought-relieving storm coming our way.
Aviation...as of 10:32 PM PDT Monday...for 06z tafs. Clear skies
will persist through the forecast period as high pressure continues
to build over the region. Some locally gusty northerly winds may
develop late tonight into Tuesday with low level turbulence and
shear possible but little impact at the terminals.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions expected through tonight.
Ksfo bridge approach...same as sfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions expected through tonight.
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Public forecast: west pi
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