Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
1028 am PDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Synopsis...normal to slightly above normal temperatures and dry
weather will persist into the first half of next week.
Discussion...as of 09:03 am PDT Saturday...patchy dense fog was
observed this morning across the Monterey Bay peninsula and the
northern Salinas valley. Per visible satellite imagery and
regional web cams...the fog is now confined over the Monterey Bay
and up along Highway 1 towards Moss Landing. As temperatures
continue to warm...the fog should dissipate by late morning.
Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies are in place with few/scattered high
clouds streaming across the region. The ongoing forecast looks on
track and only minor changes have been made to reflect current
Previous discussion...as of 3:10 am PDT Saturday...clouds from former
Hurricane Marie provided some beautiful sunset shots last night and
are continuing to keep higher level clouds streaming across our
County Warning Area. Satellite fog product shows at this time virtually no fog
formation across our entire area, so have issued a minor forecast
update to remove it from almost all spots away from the coast.
Sunny skies are forecast by late in the morning with temperatures very
close to Friday -- middle 60s to upper 70s at the coast with upper
70s to lower 90s for most inland spots. Locally breezy conditions
are likely this afternoon and early in the evening as surface
gradients increase (sfo-Tonopah GOES over 6 mb).
Quiet weather is expected for Sunday and Labor Day as a ridge of
high pressure out in the Pacific builds to California as a
longwave trough to our east progresses into the central Continental U.S.. both
days will feature temperates close to what we will see today with
a few degrees of cooling inland as 850 mb temperatures cool 1-2c. Looks
like nearly perfect weather for outdoor activities.
Quiet weather is forecast for the remainder of next week with the
main storm track well to our north. Models do bring what is left
of Hurricane Marie over to our cwa, however currently very good
agreement that all it will likely produce is just high clouds.
Kept probability of precipitation near zero for all days.
Aviation...as of 10:20 am PDT Saturday...VFR today following
fast burn off this morning. Light to moderate sea breeze this
afternoon. Stratus to mostly stay out of sf Bay tonight due to
shallower marine layer and increasing northerly gradient.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR through this afternoon. Stratus
to return middle to late evening.
Marine...as of 09:03 am PDT Saturday...high pressure off the
northern California coast will bring moderate northwest winds
through Monday. Winds will decrease Tuesday and Wednesday as
thermal trough shifts to the coast.
... Bay from 1 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm from 1 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Public forecast: rgass/Bell
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