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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR AREA AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN END AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:40 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS VERY MIXED OUT THIS MORNING AND HAS GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS REGION WIDE...EVEN ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND WILL BE SPENDING TIME LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...STILL GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SATELLITE PRODUCTS DO
INDICATE CLOUDS JUST OFF THE COAST PLUS A COUPLE OF BANDS
ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. SURFACE GRADIENT SHOWS AROUND 1.5 MB
DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST, SO DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BEFORE NOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT US WARM READINGS YESTERDAY WILL BE MORE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER TODAY -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE TROF. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AN UP NORTH TO 80S AND 90
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS.

THE TROF WILL PROGRESS TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FIRST IMPACTING WA/OR AND THEN INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER IN THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
THE RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR CWA AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE SHUTTING OFF AS THE TROF AXIS HEADS
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE ALSO PAINTED THE AREA DOWN
INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. DECIDED TO UP THE POPS BY ABOUT 10-20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAS THAT MAY HAVE RAIN. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH VARIOUS FORECASTING TOOLS SHOWING
LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH OF RAIN DOWN
TO SAN FRANCISCO. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOTS OF PLACES PICKING
UP JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH A COUPLE OF GAGES GETTING AROUND A
TENTH. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ANY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE TRICKY. TEMPS
WILL COOL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEK DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL WARM
EACH DAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 590 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS REBOUND
FROM 11-13C UP TO 21-23C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO BRING AN OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BY BUILDING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. DUE TO VERY
HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

EVEN WARMER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT OUR AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL, THERE
REMAINS LESS AGREEMENT FOR THE THE HEIGHT OF THE RIDGE PLUS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE AXIS. CPC KEEPS THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER GOING
ALMOST TO THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INLAND INTRUSION OF STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF PREDOMINANT GROUPS DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE STRATUS FIELD. STRATUS WILL CLEAR TO THE
COAST BY 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TILL 17Z THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 17Z THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE APPROACH
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THURSDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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