Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
250 PM PDT sun Mar 9 2014
Synopsis...a Pacific storm system will slowly spread rain to the
south tonight with the main focus continuing over the North Bay.
Only light rain is forecast around the San Francisco peninsula,
and most of it should be out of the area before the morning
commute. Dry weather is then forecast from late Monday through
the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Daytime
temperatures will be above normal from Tuesday Onward.
Discussion...as of 3:00 PM PDT Sunday...kmux radar continues to
pick up a few showers streaming across the far North Bay this
afternoon, although virtually all of the recorded rain is still to
our north. Models are in good agreement that as a shortwave trough
advances to the West Coast tonight, rain will be on the increase
for our area -- especially over the North Bay. Precipitable water amounts are
plentiful -- over an inch -- so the storm would have the potential
to drop decent rainfall if the dynamics lined up with it. Current
forecast is only slight changed from the previous shift with
locally an inch possible for the North Bay mountains, a quarter to
half for most North Bay communities, 5 to 15 hundredths around sf
Bay, and lesser amounts to the south. Would not be surprised if
almost all of Monterey and San Benito counties came away without
Cooler temperatures (4-8 degrees) can be expected on Monday as
the trough passes through. That should be the coolest day of the
week for almost all spots. Offshore winds will start to crank up
Monday night into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure at the
surface builds to our north. This will help to produce locally
gusty winds in the hills for that period.
Starting on Tuesday temperatures will begin to warm as an offshore
flow at the surface combines with a ridge of high pressure aloft
and warming at 850 mb. The warming will generally increase into
the weekend with possible record breaking highs for Sunday. Would not
be surprised if we see a few 90s on that day in Monterey County.
Longer range guidance shows dry weather continuing through at
least to the 21st of the March.
Aviation...as of 10:41 am PDT Sunday...a cold front off the
coast will bring some some rain to mainly the North Bay and
greater sf Bay area but that will happen much later today and
tonight. Ceilings are expected to remain in the VFR range today and
then gradually lower tonight with the approaching front.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Occasional MVFR Monday morning.
Ksfo bridge approach...same as sfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR.
Public forecast: Bell
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