Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
946 PM PST Friday Mar 7 2014
Synopsis...high pressure will maintain dry conditions and
seasonably mild temperatures across the Bay area through Saturday.
A warm front will move into the North Bay Sunday with a chance of
light rain. Rain chances will spread southward into the greater
Bay area on Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the coast
resulting in mild and dry weather Tuesday through Friday.
Discussion...as of 8:30 PM PST Friday...high pressure continues
to build off the California coast this evening. Other than a few
high clouds skies will remain mainly clear through tonight. Patchy
fog possible across inland valleys by morning. Mild temperatures
anticipated again tonight with slightly above normal temperatures
expected Saturday as high pressure remains in place. Temperatures
are forecast to warm 3 to 5 degrees Saturday with highs in the 60s
and 70s expected across the board.
From previous discussion...the next storm system expected to
affect northern California will start to spread clouds across the
North Bay late in the day Saturday. Warm-frontal rains are
forecast to begin Sunday morning in the North Bay...with the
heaviest rain expected to remain north of Sonoma County. The warm
front will persist over the North Bay through Sunday night. Then a
shortwave trough will finally move the rain southward into the
greater Bay area by Monday morning with little or no rain as far
south as Monterey. Storm totals over the far North Bay are
expected to range from 0.50-1.00 inch...with 0.10-0.25 possible
for the greater Bay area by Monday afternoon. Much lighter rain
amounts are expected for the South Bay and Monterey Bay region.
After the system on Monday passes through...strong high pressure
will once again build over the area for much of next week. Expect
mostly clear skies with high temperatures trending above normal...
plenty of readings in the 70s and probably even some 80s.
The latest 8-14 day outlooks from the climate prediction center
keep all of California and Nevada painted under moderate-to-high
probability for below normal precipitation for the time frame from
March 15th through the 21st...with all of the western U.S.
Expected to be warmer than usual during that time frame.
Aviation...as of 9:45 PM PST Friday...low clouds have been
patchy across the region thus far on Friday evening. Models
indicate an increase in low level moisture around sf Bay overnight
as light onshore flow continues...so there may be occasional IFR
ceilings later tonight into early Saturday morning at koak and ksfo.
Low to medium confidence. Farther south...developing light
easterly flow should maintain clear skies near mry Bay after 09z.
VFR conditions expected in all areas by 16z and continuing through
Saturday. Winds will remain light.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions may persist through the
night...although occasional IFR ceilings are possible between about
12z and 16z. High confidence if VFR conditions from middle morning
Saturday through Saturday evening. Light winds.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...occasional IFR/MVFR ceilings at kmry
through about 09z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period along with light winds.
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 am
Public forecast: CW
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