Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
1013 am PST Friday Dec 26 2014

..much cooler temperatures expected tonight with patchy frost
in the valleys...

Synopsis...cold temperatures expected once again Friday night
into Saturday morning. These cold temperatures will result in wide
spread frost for many inland locations. Otherwise...dry weather
is expected to persist into the beginning of next week with cold
overnight temperatures possible once again by middle week.

&& of 9:24 am PST was a cold start
around the forecast area this morning with many inland
temperatures falling into the low 30s and even 20s! Monterey
Airport fell to 37...Pinnacles National Monument fell to 27 and
Bradley reported 26 degrees at 7 am. Light offshore winds should
reinforce the cold airmass that is in place over our area which
will result temperatures falling a few degrees cooler tonight.
With this in mind will most likely issue a hard freeze warning for
our southern counties. The coldest temperatures anticipated to be
in the interior sections of Monterey and San Benito counties.

Our frost advisory criteria does not permit US to issue a frost
advisory for non urban areas after December 15th. However...due to
the cold crisp airmass expect wide spread frost to develop at many
locations overnight tonight.

The 0000z European model (ecmwf) along with the 1200z gfs40 and nam12 have
initialized well with the current synoptic pattern and remain in
good agreement through the next 84 hours. The forecast models are
suggesting another cold night tonight before the airmass modifies
permitting slightly warmer temperatures for Saturday night into

In the extended forecast both the 0000z European model (ecmwf) and 1200z gfs40 are
forecasting a cold storm system pushing into the Great Basin
states on Sunday. This cold storm system slides into northern and
central California on Tuesday. Unfortunately...model agreement
breaks down on the exact timing and trajectory of this storm
system. Depending on the track of the system our area could be in
for another round of cold temperatures by middle week with a
possibility of snow showers in the hills. We will be keeping an
eye on this developing weather story as it unfolds.

&& of 10 am PST dry air mass remains over
the area leading to excellent visibility and predominately clear
skies. North-northwest winds subside today as winds become light.
Air mass shows gradual moistening trend beginning around 00z Sunday.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.

Ksfo bridge approach...VFR.

Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR.

&& of 09:59 am PST Friday...north winds will continue to
gradually diminish today as high pressure strengthens aloft. Small
craft winds will continue for the northern outer waters for the
remainder of the day. Moderate northwest swell diminishes through
the weekend and into early next week.


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories...
... Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm



Public forecast: Larry
aviation: drp
marine: canepa

Visit US at weather.Gov/sanfrancisco

Follow US on facebook, twitter, and youtube at:

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations