Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
1036 PM PDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014
Synopsis... dry and warmer conditions are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. It will be cooler this weekend with a chance of showers
Friday and possibly Sunday.
Discussion...as of 8:45 PM PDT Tuesday...upper level trough that
moved through the district early this morning has now pushed into
the Great Basin. Temperatures were cool today with highs 5-10
degrees cooler across the sfo and mry Bay area and 10-20 degrees
cooler in southern Monterey and San Benito counties. Local gusty
winds 30-45 miles per hour were reported today mainly in the hills above 1500
Winds will decrease tonight as the trough moves east. A weak
upper level ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Dry northerly flow should keep low clouds
to a minimum at night. An upper level trough will approach the
West Coast Friday. Latest model runs indicating this system is
stronger than the last system and has a better chance for rain. In
terms of timing the chance for rain will be on Friday but it could
start as early as late Thursday night in the North Bay. Rainfall
amounts will not be very impressive with expected amounts 1/4-1/2
inch in the North Bay and 1/4 inch or less elsewhere. The system
will quickly exit the area Friday night. Temperatures will
continue to be cool through the weekend as another upper trough
will move through on Sunday. This system will not be as deep and
most of the rain will stay north of the area.
Dry weather returns next week as a high-amplitude ridge builds
over the area. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with
warmest areas reaching the low 90s by the middle of next week.
Aviation...as of 10:36 PM PDT Tuesday...scattered high clouds
have moved in over the region this evening. Moderate and gusty
onshore flow will continue to ease through the night.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period with mainly high clouds traversing the region. Sustained
west winds around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots expected over ksfo
through late tonight. Winds will gradually ease overnight into
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period. Winds will continue to ease overnight.
Marine...as of 10:26 PM PDT Tuesday...gusty northwest winds will
continue to decrease tonight and Wednesday with the strongest
winds remaining south of Point Pinos. Northwest to west winds will
prevail for much of the upcoming weekend. A long period south
swell will impact the region late this week and over the weekend.
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Monterey Bay until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm until 3 am
Public forecast: west pi
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