Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
953 am PST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
Synopsis...a few residual showers will be possible through the
morning as an upper level low pushes inland to our northeast.
Dry weather conditions return for Thanksgiving day...along with
continue cooler than average temperatures that will persist
through the upcoming weekend.
Discussion...as of 9:10 am PST Wednesday...the upper level low
that brought showers to the area has moved to the east and is now
located over eastern Nevada. A few residual showers are possible
across mainly the southern sections of the district this
morning...but these will dwindle as the day progresses. Current
radar imagery shows no echoes over our area...however satellite
imagery shows cumulus clouds over the higher peaks from San Mateo
Dry and cool weather will be the rule for the remainder of the
work week. Temperatures will drop to some of our coldest levels
of the season with many inland spots expected to see lows in the
30s to lower 40s with the coolest readings expected Friday
morning. North Bay inland valleys could see some readings dropping
into the upper 20s.
There continues to be some disparity amongst the medium range model
solutions regarding the possibility for rain in the latter part of
the forecast period. The latest GFS brings some precipitation
across the southern third of the district Saturday night...with
a stronger system affecting the entire County Warning Area late Monday and
Tuesday. The 00z run of the European model (ecmwf)...however...keeps northern
California dry until much later in the week. It will be
interesting to see how subsequent model runs handle this.
Aviation...as of 09:55 am PST Wednesday...upper low over ncal/nnv
this morning. Lingering low level moisture has resulted in few to
scattered clouds at 2500-4000 feet as well as some high clouds at or above
15000-20000 feet above ground level. Drier air will general filter into region
today leading to fewer clouds. Light onshore winds through the
daylight hours... with weak offshore winds overnight/early
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.
Ksfo bridge approach...a few lingering clouds in approach but
should not limit arrivals.
Monterey Bay area terminals...scattered to broken clouds 2500-3500 feet above ground level
through next few hours posbl. Otherwise VFR.
Marine...as of 08:33 am PST Wednesday...northwest winds and seas
will decrease today as low pressure over the Great Basin moves
east. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will extend into the
Pacific northwest Thursday and Friday. This will create more of a
north to northeast flow that will last through the weekend.
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Public forecast: Sims
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