Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
217 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2014
Synopsis...dry weather conditions with near seasonal temperatures
will persist through the first half of the upcoming work week.
Temperatures are then forecast to cool slightly for the latter half
of the week as an upper level trough impacts the region.
Discussion...as of 02:15 PM PDT Saturday...warm temperatures and
fair weather conditions prevail across the region this afternoon
under mostly sunny skies. Few/scattered high clouds streaming over the
central coast are a result of moisture aloft associated with the
middle/upper level trough that continues to push through the western
Weak ridging aloft will build across the eastern Pacific through
early next week as the upper trough pushes eastward and will result
in dry weather conditions and temperatures at or slightly above
seasonal averages. Overnight and early morning coastal clouds will
also be likely with persistent onshore flow and a modest marine
layer in place.
The forecast models are in somewhat of an agreement in bringing a
middle/upper level trough and/or closed low into northern California
during the latter half of next week. Do show a slight cooling
trend for Thursday and Friday as 850mb temperatures drop by a few
degrees. Otherwise...this system appears to be dry and will keep
precipitation chances at zero through the extended.
Aviation...as of 10:20 am PDT Saturday...VFR today following
fast burn off this morning. Light to moderate sea breeze this
afternoon. Stratus to mostly stay out of sf Bay tonight due to
shallower marine layer and increasing northerly gradient.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR through this afternoon. Stratus
to return middle to late evening.
Marine...as of 02:15 PM PDT Saturday...high pressure off the
northern California coast will bring moderate northwest winds
through Monday. Winds will diminish slightly on Tuesday and
Wednesday as thermal trough shifts to the coast.
... Bay until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay north of the Bay Bridge until 9 PM
Public forecast: rgass
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