Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
224 am PST Sat Mar 8 2014
Synopsis...mild and dry weather Saturday. By Sunday a warm front
will move into the North Bay with a chance of rain over Sonoma
County. The front will spread rain over the entire North Bay
Sunday night and into the greater Bay area Monday morning. Showers
will end by Monday afternoon with mild and dry weather Monday
night through Friday.
Discussion...as of 2:24 am PST Saturday...skies are mostly clear
this morning with just some thin cirrus spilling into northern
California while 1/2 mile fog is being reported at Santa Rosa at
this time. A nice Saturday is in store for the Bay area with high
pressure over the region bringing seasonably mild temperatures
from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Winds will begin to turn southerly by Sunday as a warm front moves
into northern California in the vicinity of Cape Mendocino. Light
rain chances will begin to show up over northern Sonoma County
through the day Sunday while the rest of the Bay area will stay
Rain chances will increase by Sunday night over the entire North
Bay as a shortwave trough moves into Oregon. Light rain should
spread from the North Bay into the greater Bay area during the
pre-dawn or early morning hours of Monday...impacting the Monday
morning commute. Light rain will quickly turn to showers and
diminish by middle-morning with only some very light rain forecast
for San Jose...Santa Cruz and Monterey with little or no rain
south of the Monterey peninsula. Rain totals by lunch time Monday
will be in excess of one inch over the coastal North Bay hills
while totals will dramatically drop off over the Bay area with
totals from a tenth to quarter inch on average.
By midday Monday any lingering showers should end with high
pressure building Monday night into Tuesday. Surface gradients
will trend offshore with some locally strong north winds possible
in the hills by Tuesday morning.
Normal highs for this time of year are still in the low to middle 60s
but highs next week are forecast from the upper 60s to middle 70s as
fairly strong high pressure will result in dry and sunny weather
at least through the weekend of March 15/16th.
Aviation...as of 9:45 PM PST Friday...low clouds have been
patchy across the region thus far on Friday evening. Models
indicate an increase in low level moisture around sf Bay overnight
as light onshore flow continues...so there may be occasional IFR
ceilings later tonight into early Saturday morning at koak and ksfo.
Low to medium confidence. Farther south...developing light
easterly flow should maintain clear skies near mry Bay after 09z.
VFR conditions expected in all areas by 16z and continuing through
Saturday. Winds will remain light.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions may persist through the
night...although occasional IFR ceilings are possible between about
12z and 16z. High confidence if VFR conditions from middle morning
Saturday through Saturday evening. Light winds.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...occasional IFR/MVFR ceilings at kmry
through about 09z. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period along with light winds.
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 am
Public forecast: rww
Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/sanfrancisco
Follow US on facebook, twitter, and youtube at: