Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
858 PM PDT Monday may 20 2013 


..much cooler with breezy onshore winds Tuesday... 


Discussion...as of 9:00 PM PDT Monday...upper level ridge over 
the area combined with light offshore flow brought warm 
temperatures to the district today with temperatures running about 
15 degrees above normal. 


It will turn much cooler Tuesday as an upper level low moves into 
the Pacific northwest. The cool advection will cause airmass 
mixing allowing winds to switch to onshore and become breezy. This 
should keep stratus patchy in nature. 


The upper low will remain over the Pacific northwest through 
Thursday so temperatures will be cool through the period. It will 
be a little warmer Friday as the low moves inland but another 
upper trough will move over the area Saturday with trofiness 
continuing through early next week. As a result temperatures for 
the Memorial Day weekend are expected to be at or a little below 
normal. 




&& 


Aviation...as of 5:50 PM PDT Monday...scattered high clouds will 
continue to stream in from the west through tonight. Low clouds 
may redevelop late tonight however the shallow marine layer will 
keep stratus at the coast with minimal inland penetration. Low 
confidence. Gusty winds will continue through this evening. Winds 
will ease overnight with stronger winds expected Tuesday afternoon. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions expected through late tonight. 
Temporary IFR/MVFR ceilings possible between 12z to 16z. Low 
confidence. Moderate west winds around 15 to 20 knots expected to 
continue through tonight. Winds will gradually increase Tuesday 
with sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the 
morning to around 30 knots with gusts near 40 knots by the afternoon. 
An Airport weather warning for ksfo will likely be issued for 
Tuesday afternoon and evening. 


Ksfo bridge approach...VFR conditions and west winds of 15 to 25 
knots expected through forecast period. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions will continue through 
this evening with ceilings possibly returning after 10z. Low confidence. 
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue through tonight with 
strong west winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts between 20 to 25 
knots expected Tuesday. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from midnight 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from midnight 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm from midnight 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm from 3 am 
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: west pi 
aviation/marine: CW 


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