Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
851 PM PDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Synopsis...isolated showers will continue over the area through
the remainder of the evening. Dry weather is forecast to return by
Sunday. High pressure will build over the state from Monday
through midweek...resulting in a warming trend. The next Pacific
storm is forecast to bring renewed rain chances to the region by
Thursday night or Friday.

&&

Discussion...as of 8:50 PM PDT Saturday...isolated light showers
continue across the area this evening...but radar shows that
shower activity continues to gradually taper off. This is
consistent with latest model data which mostly indicate an end to
all precipitation by late this evening. A forecast update earlier this
evening included a reduction in late night probability of precipitation to no more than
slight chance.

Dry weather is expected to return to all areas by Sunday morning.
Skies are forecast to become mostly sunny. Cool northwest breezes
will keep inland temperatures a bit below normal.

A low amplitude upper ridge is forecast to build over California
during the first half of the work week...resulting in continued
dry weather along with a gradual warming trend through midweek.

The medium range models have come into much better agreement
regarding the system due in near the end of next week. It now
looks like rain could move into our area as soon as Thursday
night...with rainfall most likely on Friday and Friday night
(halloween). The models also indicate this system could be quite a
bit wetter than today's system. Of course...this is still nearly
a week out and much can change.

&&

Aviation...as of 5:57 PM PDT Saturday...lingering instability is
causing a few showers to linger over the forecast area. Moist low
levels of the atmosphere could cause a few patches of valley fog
early Sun morning.

Vicinity of ksfo...scattered showers still seen on the radar. Most
of the activity nearby is just east and south of the Airport. VFR.

Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.

Monterey Bay area terminals...scattered low clouds forecast
tonight. VFR.

&&

Marine...as of 02:50 PM PDT Saturday...west to northwest winds
will continue to diminish through tonight as a strong surface low
pressure pulls away from the region. In addition...a large
westerly swell moving through the waters will slowly subside
overnight. Wind speeds will then increase again Sunday afternoon
and evening over the coastal waters as high pressure builds off
the California coast.

&&

Mtr watches/warnings/advisories...
... Bay north of the Bay Bridge until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...rough bar advisory for sf bar until 9 PM

&&

$$

Public forecast: dykema
aviation: canepa
marine: rgass

Visit US at weather.Gov/sanfrancisco

Follow US on facebook, twitter, and youtube at:
www.Facebook.Com/nwsbayarea
www.Twitter.Com/nwsbayarea
www.Youtube.Com/nwsbayarea

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations