Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
1054 am PDT Monday Aug 31 2015
Synopsis...generally dry weather conditions will persist across
the region through the upcoming work week. Daytime temperatures
near the coast will continue to be near normal...while inland
areas will be slightly below seasonal averages.
Discussion...as of 09:00 am PDT Monday...visible satellite
imagery this morning shows stratus along the San Mateo coast down
around the Monterey Bay region. Most inland areas should see
clearing later this morning with mostly sunny conditions through
the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will generally be near
or a few degrees above those from Sunday...upper 60s to lower 70s
near the coast to the middle/upper 80s in the warmest inland
locations. Have made a few minor adjustments to the sky cover and
removed patchy fog from many locations based on current trends.
Otherwise...the forecast remains on track for the remainder of the
Previous discussion...as of 3:15 am PDT Monday...a strong northerly
surface flow this morning has helped to keep virtually our entire
area cloud free so far. Last few frames show one patch of clouds
off the San Mateo coast heading to the south. This area will
likely expend over the next few hours and impact at least southern
Monterey Bay coastline. Outside of that...should be a mostly
sunny start to the day. Temperatures are running close to where we were
yesterday and highs are expected to be close to the values we hit
on Sunday. Look for upper 60s to upper 70s at the coast with upper
70s to near 90 for inland spots. One difference from yesterday is
winds for the afternoon should be slightly less although we will
still see local gusts to around 30 miles per hour.
For the rest of the week quiet weather is expected as the overall
synoptic pattern has a longwave trough over the western third of the
Continental U.S. While a ridge axis is expected over the eastern third. This
will produce temperatures at or a bit cooler than normal inland while
coastal spots will be at or slightly above normal due to offshore
flow and abundant sunshine. The storm track will remain well to
Further out...no sign of rain through at least the middle of next
Aviation...as of 10:54 am PDT Monday...significant northerly
flow helped to keep the sf Bay area mostly cloud free this
morning. However...the same northerly flow pushed low clouds into
the Monterey and Salinas area this morning...but these clouds have
since burned off. The marine layer seems to be reestablishing
itself after a few days of being well mixed. The combination of
the marine layer and significant northerly flow will promote an
early stratus return to the Monterey area...but will result in a
late return to the sf Bay area this evening.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR is expected to prevail today with low
clouds developing late tonight...best guess around 0900 to 1000z.
The sea breeze will reach 18 to 20 knots this afternoon with gusts to
Confidence is moderate.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR is expected to prevail today
with low clouds returning early this evening between 0200 and
0300z. The sea breeze will reach 10 knots this afternoon with gusts
to 15 knots.
Confidence is moderate.
Marine...as of 09:00 am PDT Monday...a significant surface
pressure gradient will maintain moderate northwesterly winds
across the coastal waters through a majority of the work
week...the strongest of which are expected to occur over the
northern outer waters. These gusty winds will promote
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay from 11 am
Public forecast: rgass
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