Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
252 am PDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Discussion...as of 2:52 am PDT Thursday...early morning
satellite infrared fog product shows mostly clear skies at this time
across the district. A few patches of stratus are starting to
materialize along the San Mateo coastline as well as out over the
coastal waters. Expect only patchy low clouds and fog to form
along the coast by sunrise. Otherwise...a sunny day will yield
warmer temperatures across the district as high pressure aloft
filters in over the area.
High pressure will continue to bring a warming trend to the area
through Saturday. By Saturday highs are forecast to range from the
60s and 70s at the coast...70s and 80s inland...with warmest
areas topping off in the middle 90s.
A change is expected by the latter half of the weekend...though...as
a deep upper level low approaches the West Coast. Medium range
models are coming more in agreement concerning the effects of this
system as it nears. The 00z run of the European model (ecmwf) brings rain as far
south as the Monterey Bay by 18z Sunday...a Little Break in rain
across the coast followed by more rain spreading south through
around the Bay area Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS keeps the
area dry through Sunday...but brings a stronger and wetter system
through northern California on Monday with quantitative precipitation forecast totals of over an
inch across Sonoma County and northward. Went with more of a
compromise for the forecast with rain beginning on Sunday and rain
chances through Tuesday mainly across the northern half of the
County Warning Area. Not keying on large quantitative precipitation forecast amounts for now...there is still
plenty of time to dial in the details.
Summer begins at 05:04z on June 21st...or 10:04 PM PDT June 20th.
Today is the last day of Spring.
&&
Aviation...as of 10:52 PM PDT Wednesday...VFR conditions expected
through the forecast period. Gusty winds will continue through
late tonight. Winds will ease overnight then increase once again
Thursday afternoon.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Moderate to strong west winds through late tonight. Winds will
ease slightly overnight then strengthen once again Thursday afternoon.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period. Moderate onshore winds expected once again
Thursday afternoon.
&&
Mtr watches/warnings/advisories...
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
glw...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 am
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay from noon
Small Craft Advisory...mry Bay from noon
&&
$$
Public forecast: Sims
aviation/marine: CW
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