Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
608 am PDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
Synopsis...aside from the possibility of coastal drizzle...dry
weather conditions will persist through the workweek. Temperatures
will cool slightly for the the latter half of the week as an upper
level trough drops southward into the Pacific northwest.
Discussion...as of 3:10 am PDT Tuesday...generally clear start to
the day inland and coastal spots over the North Bay while
satellite shows clouds stretching from around San Francisco
southward through coastal Monterey. Current surface analysis has
the flow from the north-northwest while the marine layer is close to 1000
feet. Therefore...would expect clouds to stay mostly along the
coast and possibly going into the Salinas valley. Temperatures today are
starting out 2 to 4 degrees cooler right now and highs should end
up a few degrees cooler than what we say on Monday in most spots.
Highs at the coast will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with inland
spots in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Quiet weather can be expected the remainder of the week and likely
through all of next week as the big picture shows a longwave trough
generally over the western Continental U.S. Into Canada while a ridge stays
over the eastern Continental U.S.. any rain should remain well to our north.
Only chance of any precipitation will be from drizzle especially
tomorrow morning of this week along the coast.
No weather related advisories expected at least the next ten days.
Aviation...as of 6:10 am PDT Tuesday...while stratus has spread
along the coast it has been slow to spread into the sfo Bay area.
Any ceilings in the sfo Bay area will be patchy so worst case is for
tempo MVFR ceilings through 16z.
Vicinity of ksfo...possibility of brief MVFR ceilings 14-16z otherwise
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...IFR ceilings through 17z.
Marine...as of 10:09 PM PDT Monday...high pressure centered
1200 miles off the Oregon coast will remain in place through the
week. This will bring moderate northwest winds through the period
with the strongest winds over the northern outer waters.
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 11 am
Public forecast: Bell
aviation: west pi
marine: west pi
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