Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
149 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
Synopsis...a noticeable warming trend will begin to take shape
through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds over the
region. Coastal locations will continue to experience above
average temperatures as well with little marine influence through
the remainder of the week.
Discussion...as of 01:47 PM PDT Wednesday...a strong middle/upper
level low pressure center off the Washington coast this afternoon
continues to drive a weak frontal boundary into northern
California. As this system moves inland...the ridge to our east
currently over Colorado will begin to build westward through the
remainder of the week. As a result...a warming trend is expected
to develop through the upcoming weekend. This warm-up will be felt
mostly inland away from the coast as 850 mb temperatures increase.
In the mean time...boundary layer moisture continues to be limited
and will keep the typical marine layer and associated low clouds
out of the region for the next 36 to 48 hours. With only the
possibility of patchy coastal clouds the next few mornings...above
average daytime temperatures will persist along coastal locations
through the remainder of the week.
As the onshore flow increases and becomes more predominate across
the coastal waters this weekend into early next week...the marine
influence will likely return to coastal locations. Meanwhile...the
medium range models keep the middle/upper level ridge as the main
feature across the region and will maintain above average
temperatures into early next week. Given the persistent ridge
aloft...expecting dry conditions through the forecast period.
Aviation...as of 10:55 am PDT Wednesday...beautiful skies around
the forecast area this morning with cumulus clouds over the Bay
area and cirrus clouds over Monterey. The cumulus clouds are
beginning to scatter out as a cold front approaches from the west.
Vicinity of ksfo...sct-bkn030 are anticipated to continue to
scatter out over the next few hours. Westerly winds will increase
to 10 to 18 knots this afternoon with gusts to 25 knots. At this point
stratus is not expected to return tonight.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail through the next 24 hours with a brief period of IFR
conditions at kmry possible between 1200 and 1500z. Westerly winds
will increase to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon.
Marine...as of 01:47 PM PDT Wednesday...high pressure building
over the eastern Pacific coupled with a thermal trough developing
over the California interior will result in increasing winds
across the coastal waters beginning this afternoon and evening.
The strengthening winds will result in deteriorating sea
... Bay until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay north of the Bay Bridge until 9 PM
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay south of the Bay Bridge until 9 PM
Public forecast: rgass
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