Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
405 am PDT Tuesday Mar 11 2014
Synopsis...a ridge will rebuild across the eastern Pacific during
the remainder of the work week and bring dry conditions across the
region. In addition, a warming trend will begin midweek and
persist through the upcoming weekend with afternoon temperatures
will be in the 60s and 70s at the coast with middle 70s to upper 80s
inland Saturday and Sunday.
Discussion...as of 3:00 am PDT Tuesday...clear skies across our
entire County Warning Area tonight with strong northerly surface gradient in
place (currently around 8 mb) and less than 1 mb from the west.
Drier air has also filtered in as the offshore winds moved across
our area. Dew points which had been in the 50s to lower 60s are now
back in the 30s and 40s. Look for plenty of sunshine across the
board with seasonably warm readings today -- middle 60s to middle 70s.
Northerly winds will diminish through the day as the gradient
slackens a bit. Locally gusty conditions in the hills will end in
most spots by late this morning.
Overall looks to be a very quiet 1 to 2 weeks ahead as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the region while 850 mb temperatures warm into the
weekend. Latest guidance has back off just a bit with the warming,
so made a few minor adjustment for temps, however bottom line is
expect warming into the weekend with sunshine. Those with outdoor
plans this weekend will be very lucky as fairly light winds will
accompany highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s at the coast with 70s
and 80s inland -- basically ideal outdoor conditions.
Longer range guidance does break down the ridge next week, however
no signs right now that the timing will work with any Pacific storms
moving across our area. In fact, gefs out almost to the end of March
shows a 30 percent chance or less of simply picking up 0.01"
during any 6 hour block through 16 days.
It looks like if we are to get a Miracle March, it will now have
to happen in just the last few days of the month.
Aviation...as of 4:05 am PDT Tuesday...dry airmass in place with
VFR conditions through the period. Offshore flow develops tonight.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.
Ksfo bridge approach...same as sfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR.
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm until 9 am
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 3 PM
Public forecast: Bell
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