Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
1038 PM PDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Discussion...as of 8:30 PM PDT Thursday...the upper level low 
continues to spin over the Pacific northwest. The trough axis 
passed through the area this morning and the low will start to 
lift northeast tonight and Friday. However another upper trough 
rotating around the back side of the low will move through inland 
on Saturday. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees Friday but 
another upper trough will move inland on Saturday preventing any 
additional warming. 


Cool temperatures are expected to continue into next week as another 
upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska sets up over the eastern 
Pacific and sends a series of shortwaves into the Pacific 
northwest. The first system will arrive on Monday. This system 
will dig a little further south and will bring a chance of rain 
from the sfo Bay area north and a slight chance of rain south of 
the sfo Bay area. A second system will move inland on Wednesday 
followed by another system next weekend. The long range GFS hints 
at a chance of rain next weekend while the European model (ecmwf) keep US dry after 
Monday. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 10:38 PM PDT Thursday...clear skies persist 
across the region. Patchy low clouds are expected to reform along 
the coast late tonight/early Friday morning. Terminals will likely 
remain clear through tonight. Winds will continue to diminish 
overnight. Moderate and locally gusty winds are anticipated Friday 
afternoon. Moderate confidence. 


Vicinity of ksfo... winds will continue to ease overnight. Winds 
are forecast to strengthen once again Friday afternoon with the 
onset of the seabreeze. VFR conditions are anticipated through 
tonight with patchy low clouds expected to reform but remain at 
the coast. Moderate confidence. 


Ksfo bridge approach...moderate winds will ease overnight with 
VFR conditions expected to prevail. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions expected through 
tonight. Winds will continue to ease becoming light and variable 
overnight. Moderate confidence. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: west pi 
aviation/marine: CW 


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