Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
303 PM PDT Tuesday may 21 2013 


Discussion...as of 3:00 PM PDT Tuesday...as expected a system 
diving down from the northwest brought cooler weather to the Bay area 
today. Temperatures right now are running 10 to 20 degrees cooler 
than they were yesterday with most spots in the upper 50s to middle 
60s at the beach and 70s inland. In addition, gusty winds have 
continued through the day in many locations with a few spots 
hitting 25 to 35 miles per hour. 


Looks like a fairly chilly night in store for our area tonight as 
the winds will combine with cold air advection filtering through our County Warning Area. In 
fact, a few spots in the North Bay could even drop into the upper 
30s. For the rest of our area lots of 40s are forecast overnight. 
925 mb speeds do indicate that speeds should lower a bit 
overnight, but still could see a lot of spots gusting to over 15 
miles per hour through the overnight hours. 


Upper level low/longwave trough will stay nearly stationary to 
our north through the upcoming Holiday weekend leading to 
continued cool conditions through the period. Highs will generally 
just be 55 to 65 at the coast with middle 60s to middle 70s for inland 
spots. On the positive side...fog formation looks unlikely during 
this time except for spots at the coast. 


Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through next week as 
500 mb heights are expected to be lower than normal with the warm 
air over the eastern half of the US. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 11:00 am PDT Tuesday...VFR except for a small 
patch of stratus over the mry peninsula. Increasing gusty winds 
today as both north south and west east gradients increase. No 
stratus expected tonight due to the northerly flow. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Gusty west winds sustained to 30 knots with 
gusts as high as 45 knots this afternoon. Airport weather warning in 
effect through 9 PM this evening. 


Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...small patch of stratus over mry this 
morning. Otherwise VFR. Gusty west winds this afternoon. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm 
glw...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm 
glw...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm 
glw...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 am 
glw...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 am 
Small Craft Advisory...sf Bay until 3 am 
Small Craft Advisory...mry Bay until 3 am 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: Bell 
aviation/marine: ac 


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