Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
334 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
..breezy and cool Holiday weekend...
Discussion...high pressure over the region will begin to flatten
today which will result in increased wind late this afternoon and
evening. A shortwave approaching Idaho and western Montana is
responsible for flattening of the ridge and will pass this
evening. Showers are possible in the Glacier region and along the
Continental Divide while the shortwave passes. The ridge will re-
amplify behind the trough on Friday, so above normal temperatures
The next trough is still on track to move into the region
beginning Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
late Friday night and Saturday morning and a cold front passage
will bring cooler air and breezy conditions for Saturday. At this
time model guidance point to cooler temperatures and increased
wind to be the main impacting weather Saturday through Sunday.
Cooler air in place on Monday morning will lead to the potential
for frost, but there appears to be enough cloud cover to keep the
frost threat lowered.
Weak high pressure should return for the beginning of the week so
temperatures will warm and precipitation chances are forecast to
be low. Extended model guidance do show another trough for the
second half of the week so temperatures will trend cooler and
precipitation chances higher.
Aviation...showers and thunderstorms are passing along the
Canada/Montana border this morning otherwise the rest of the
region is mostly cloud free to start this morning. There is a
shortwave approaching from the west today, so high pressure over
the region will flatten and winds will increase. There will also
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the Glacier park
region and along the Continental Divide as the shortwave passes
this evening. High pressure will rebuild overnight so cloud cover
and showers will decrease.