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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
355 am MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Discussion...a wave of moisture is working its way northeast
through Oregon and Idaho early this morning, resulting in some
showers and thunderstorms even at 4am. However this activity is
having a hard time staying together as it passes through the dry
air in place under this ridge of high pressure in place over the
northern rockies and has only produced increasing cloud cover this
morning. But additional disturbances are on the way with more
moisture that will gradually moisten the atmosphere, sufficiently
enough to allow some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of central Idaho and southwest Montana.

Chances for precipitation appear to be less on Wednesday across
much of the northern rockies with the best potential existing
across southern Lemhi County. This day also appears to be the
hottest this week with temperatures pushing upwards of 10 degrees
above normal as the ridge starts to break down and move east.

All model data suggest the best chance for precipitation this
week occurs on Thursday. In fact some data would indicate that
thunderstorms may develop rather early in the day over southern
Idaho and propagate northeast into southwest Montana by the noon
hour. Elsewhere scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
developing throughout the day as a fairly strong cold front
approaches the region. However widespread precipitation does not
seem likely given this type of system and frontal passage and
temperatures will almost certainly cool, residing near seasonal
normals by the end of this week.

Friday through next weekend a ridge of high pressure builds over
the northern rockies. This will cause a warming and drying through
early next week with very pleasant weather for being in the
outdoors.

&&

Aviation...ksmn and kbtm will experience increasing amounts of
cloud cover and could see some light showers late in the day.
Otherwise impacts to aviation will be quite limited over the next
24 hours.

&&

Mso watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Idaho...none.
&&

$$

Iv/Leach

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