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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
235 PM MDT Monday Jul 6 2015


Pleasant and mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon into
the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms will continue to develop
from Lemhi County northeastward toward Butte with the primary
threats being lightning and brief heavy rain. Storms will quickly
dissipate after sunset.

The next weather disturbance will slide into northwest Montana by
early Tuesday, bringing a round of early morning showers from
Thompson Falls to Glacier np. As the trough axis approaches
Tuesday afternoon, instability and moisture levels will be on the
increase across northwest Montana. This will lead to scattered
thunderstorms across much the area, mostly in the afternoon and
evening, with the main threats being lightning and brief heavy
rain. Although some storms will be capable of wetting rains, given
the extremely dry fuels across northwest Montana, any lightning
strikes outside of the main rain cores will present concerns for
fire starts. At this point, the greatest lightning coverage is
expected across far northwest Montana with a Fire Weather Watch in
effect. However, additional areas of northwest Montana may need
to be added if the threat is expected to expand.

On Wednesday, a weak trough will remain generally over north-
central Idaho into western Montana. The cooler temperatures aloft
combined with daytime heating will allow for a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The best threat for lightning activity will be
across the southern Bitterroot Mountains into Lemhi County, Idaho in
the afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal in most areas,
while northwest Montana will see readings 5 to 9 degrees above

Thursday through the weekend: the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase each day through next weekend.
Temperatures will be near to above normal. With a large upper
level trough becoming situated off the West Coast, the pattern
will be conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is a
developing scenario that could bring about many significant
impacts. More specific details will emerge in the coming days.


Aviation...northerly winds will bring about a late afternoon
breeze to most aviation terminals through roughly 07/02000z. Calm
overnight conditions will persist, with a weak easterly gradient
likely persisting at kmso. For Tuesday, an increasingly unstable
atmosphere and an approaching cold front will create turbulent
conditions, with thunderstorms likely to affect all terminals
through the day. Expect intermittent reductions in vsby in areas
of heaviest thundershowers.


Mso watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening Kootenai.



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