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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
233 PM MDT sun may 3 2015

..warm day Monday, then a wet and cooler rest of the week...

Discussion...today and Monday should be quite nice days area wide,
with Monday being our warmest day this week. Temperatures across
north central Idaho and western Montana will range in the mid to
upper 70s, possibly reaching the 80 degree mark in very isolated
locations. This will be our prefrontal atmosphere ahead of what
will be the start to an active, cooler, and wetter week ahead for
the northern rockies. Tuesday's frontal passage will create gusty
winds for western Montana, in addition to the chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. Impacts will range from recreational
inconveniences due to light rainfall and gusty winds. Lightning
will also be a threat to anyone outdoors in the vicinity of
storms.

Well forecast models in the extended continue to be at odds with
each other, revealing few clear details from Wednesday Onward.
But the overall trend towards much cooler temperatures and the
potential for wetter weather are still very much in play. As of
now both the European and GFS models depict a decent scenario for
precipitation late Wednesday through Thursday. This time frame
also appears to be the coolest of the week with temperatures
running around five degrees below normal for a change! In fact
there is an outside chance that higher elevation mountains across
southwest Montana could even see some light snow. Albeit any
impacts from this should be very isolated and likely only to
back country interests.

Thereafter the consistency and reliability of these same models
remains low and thus few changes were made to the forecast, which
emphasized near normal temperatures with periodic showers through
next weekend.

&&

Aviation...a weak ridge will remain over Idaho and western
Montana through Monday, with passing high cloud cover and
generally nice Spring weather and light winds.

&&

Mso watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Idaho...none.
&&

$$

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