Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
410 am MDT Sat Jul 4 2015
..dangerous conditions for fire starts today...
One last much-warmer-than-normal day is in store for the northern
rockies this 4th of July. With temperatures running 15+ degrees
above normal, dry relative humidities, and elevated afternoon
winds due to an approaching weather disturbance, we have a red
flag warning out for portions of northwest and west-central
Montana today. As the aforementioned weather disturbance
approaches the area from the north, showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop over the Glacier park region by late
this afternoon and evening. At the same time, a backdoor cold
front will sweep in from the northeast, causing an abrupt wind
shift overnight. By sunrise, most of western Montana will see
breezy east winds, with especially gusty winds in areas where the
terrain channels winds from that direction (e.G. Hellgate canyon).
Sunday will finally offer some relief from the heat for all of
western Montana. In addition to the cooler temperatures, showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will track across the area,
eventually clearing out from north to south in the afternoon. Most
of the Hwy 93 urban corridor and eastward will see highs at or
below normal (for reference, the last time Missoula saw a high
below normal was June 13th). The Glacier np area will see the most
drastic difference, with cool and wet conditions and definite
"sleeves weather" for Logan Pass. Central Idaho, on the other
hand, will not experience much cooling as forecast models show the
cold front will stall roughly along the Montana-Idaho border. Showers will
diminish Sunday night as the disturbance moves out of the region.
Temperatures will warm up above normal once again on Monday, but
overall temperatures next week will be slightly cooler than what
we have been experiencing the past week. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s for many areas through the first half of next
Models are showing another backdoor front on Tuesday. This will
bring the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms particularly
over northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide. By
Thursday, a more typical Summer pattern is expected with
temperatures warming to the low 90s and the chance for afternoon
Aviation...flattening high pressure will allow for stronger winds
this afternoon than in previous days. Kmso in particular could see
gusts around 25 kts by this afternoon, with breezy winds also
expected at kgpi/kbtm. An approaching weather disturbance this
afternoon will help kick off thunderstorms along The Divide and
Through Glacier National Park. Winds will shift to easterly and
become gusty overnight at kgpi/kmso/kbtm, with kgpi and kmso
seeing the strongest gusts.
Montana...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening east Lolo...
Flathead/Glacier park...salish and Kootenai reservation.
Red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Kootenai.