Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
237 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2014
..increasing thunderstorm threat Friday and Saturday...
Discussion...an unstable atmosphere will linger this evening with
a few showers from the southern clearwaters eastward across Lemhi
County and mainly southwest Montana.
A very warm air mass will continue across the northern rockies
through Saturday with temperature 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Some of the lower valleys of north central Idaho and western
Montana may approach the upper 90s to near 100.
Additional moisture is expected to move across north central Idaho
and western Montana late Friday and Saturday. This should
translate into a few additional thunderstorms Friday and even more
activity Saturday. Initially late Friday, the storms should
produce strong gusty winds and a few pockets of heavy rain.
However, as the air mass further moistens, the storms should
produce more rain with time. However, not everyone is going to get
a wetting rain. Rather, the heavier cores of precipitation should
be more isolated with only light to moderate showers in most other
areas by Saturday night.
The moist and unstable atmosphere should linger Sunday. Although,
across north central Idaho it appears the shower threat should be
on the decrease.
The ridge of high pressure and quite warm air mass should
generally persist into mid next week. The difference is the flow
aloft is expected to become westerly next week resulting in a slow
drying of the atmosphere.
Aviation...an unstable atmosphere will linger this evening from
the southern clearwaters eastward across mainly southwest Montana
and Lemhi County. A few shower and thunderstorms will continue to
develop in this area. The most significant weather impact
associated with the storms should be strong gusty winds. Kbtm and
ksmn should be most vulnerable to these widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The atmosphere should stabilize overnight with
the showers decreasing.
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