Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
248 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015
Short term /tonight and Monday/...
high pressure at the surface has promoted another clear...calm and
dry day across the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians. Some cumulus development has occurred along the Tennessee/NC
mountain border of the last few hours...but otherwise a clear sky
is occurring areawide. A few towering cumulus may develop into an
isolated shower over the NC mountains...but given the steering flow
from the northwest...think that this activity will stay out of the area.
Good radiational cooling will take place this evening thanks to the
clear and dry conditions...but lows will be a few degrees higher in
the low to middle 60s in most areas. Another dry and mostly clear day
is expected for Monday as this pattern continues and the high
further builds in. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than today
and peak in the low 90s in most areas...to perhaps the middle 90s in a
few spots over the far southern valley.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
will be transitioning into an unsettled weather pattern early in
the extended. A weak boundary drops into the region Monday night
through Wednesday. An increase in low level moisture combined with
a weak impulse moving long the boundary will provide the potential
for isolated convection over the area through this time frame. The
better chance of convection will be over northern areas where the
boundary is prognosticated to move through. Model consistency diminishes
through the rest of the period and confidence poor on timing and
details. However...models do bring in a strong short wave followed
by a frontal boundary around the Thursday/Friday time frame. This
system will bring our best chance of shower/thunderstorm activity.
Activity could linger into Saturday then begin to clear out by the
end of the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 66 95 71 95 / 0 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 65 92 68 90 / 0 10 10 20
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 64 92 68 90 / 0 10 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 61 90 65 86 / 0 10 10 20