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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
325 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Short term (today and tonight)...current surface analysis shows a
warm and moist air mass over the forecast area...with dewpoints in
the middle to upper 60s. Models are in good agreement that a deep
southerly wind flow will continue to bring more Gulf moisture into
the Tennessee River valley today...with a moderately unstable air mass
developing by the afternoon and evening. In addition...a weak upper-
level short wave over the MS River Valley will combine with this
instability to trigger scattered convection over the forecast area
today and tonight. As for temperatures...GFS and NAM guidance numbers are
in good agreement for today and tonight...and look reasonable.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...a weak upper-level disturbance
will track through the region Sunday and Sunday night...giving the
region a good chance for precipitation. Scattered showers/storms
will increase throughout the day on Sunday...with another round
expected along the Cumberland Plateau during the evening hours
/before things slowly begin to taper off after midnight/.
Reasonable chance probability of precipitation will exist on Monday given the abundant
moisture in place but...starting next week this activity will be
much more diurnally driven as the center of the ridge will then
builds back into the southern U.S. The one exception could be early
next week as another weak front may approach the region on
Tuesday...which may promote some slightly better precipitation
chances. However...do not think it will make far enough south to
make much of a difference...so still have a 30 pop for Tuesday.
Otherwise...isolated to scattered convection will be the norm each
day through the work week with highs generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 89 71 87 71 / 50 50 60 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 88 71 86 69 / 40 50 60 30
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 88 71 84 69 / 40 50 60 40
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 89 67 85 65 / 30 50 60 40
&&

Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Tennessee...none.
Virginia...none.
&&

$$

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