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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
331 PM EST sun Feb 1 2015

Short term...(tonight and tomorrow)...Wind Advisory continues for
the Smoky Mountains through 5am EST as a strong 850mb jet moves
through the area between 00z and 09z Monday.

Trough and associated low continues to advance toward our region and
will continue to spread rain from west to east into the area. Rain
will continue to build in overnight and exit tomorrow morning
through the afternoon. Freezing levels slowly lower early tomorrow
morning as cold air Ushers in on the back side of the low. By around
12/13z most areas should see a mix of rain and snow. By this time
however most of the precipitation should be off to our east. Did decide to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for swva...eastern mountains...and
down into our NC counties as it looks to start snowing above 3000
feet by around 09/10z. 1 to 2 inches of snow are possible within the
advisory areas above 2500/3000 feet. Up to 3 inches may be possible
across the highest peaks...above 5k feet. Advisory begins at
10z...plan to drop NC counties and Polk Mountain zone at 17z while
smokies and swva advisory will run through 22z. Areas outside of the
Winter Weather Advisory...along the plateau and netn...could see up
to half an inch of snow accumulation Monday morning. Light and
scattered snow showers will taper off through the afternoon tomorrow
with temperatures dropping through the day with temperatures in the upper
20s to low 30s by late afternoon.

Also...a new Wind Advisory will begin at 7am EST Monday for
Unicoi...Carter...Johnson...and our swva counties and go until 6pm
EST Monday. This new Wind Advisory is due to the high winds expected
behind the passage of the cold front.

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)... most if not all of
the last bits of mountain snowfall should have tapered off as the
surface low/cold front/moisture are far away from US. Clouds will
start to clear out and some parts of the area should be able to
reach into the 50's by Wednesday. Cold front moves into the area
overnight Wednesday bringing our next chance of precipitation. At this time
precipitation chances look somewhat limited as moisture doesn't
stick around the are long after the front moves through. Depending on
when the front moves through should see any precipitation start as cold
rain/light snow. As usual best chances for some light snow will be
overnight Wednesday in southwest Virginia and the higher elevations
of Tennessee. Temperatures on Thursday will warm up to where any precipitation in
the southern half of the valley should fall as rain, but in the
northern half could see light snow through most of the daytime
hours. Again precipitation chances still look relatively limited at this
time so have gone with generally 20-40 percent chances across much
of the area. After this system moves through skies start to clear
out again and temperatures climb back up towards normal.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 36 39 25 50 / 100 60 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 37 38 24 47 / 100 70 0 0
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 35 36 25 47 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 38 39 20 44 / 100 70 10 0


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am to noon EST Monday for

Tennessee...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am to 6 PM EST Monday for Blount
Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-southeast Carter-southeast Greene-southeast

Wind Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM EST Monday for Johnson-southeast

Wind Advisory until 5 am EST Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-southeast
Greene-southeast Monroe.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am to noon EST Monday for east

Virginia...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am to 6 PM EST Monday for Lee-

Wind Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM EST Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott-




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