Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee
311 am EDT sun Sep 21 2014
Short term (today and tonight)...for this morning...clear sky and
calm winds will allow patchy fog and low-clouds. Fog will dissipate
For late this afternoon/evening...a cold front will move across the
area. Air-mass along and ahead of the boundary will be marginally
unstable with MLCAPES of 1500-2000 j/kg. Precipitable waters increase to 1.4-1.5
inches...so enough moisture to produce scattered-broken
thunderstorms. Soundings show a good deal of middle-level dry air and
with a boundary layer jet increasing to 30kts...some of the storms
will be strong with isolated severe possible. Will include in severe weather potential statement.
Also...wbz are low enough with marginal hail-convective available potential energy to produce pea
to 1/2 inch size hail this afternoon/early evening.
Front moves south and east of the area by 01-03z this evening with
drier and cooler air advecting into the region.
Long term (monday through saturday)...overall very quiet for the
extended. High pressure develops over the eastern u... mostly
clear skies and dry weather the main features through the end of the
work week. The flow will be from the north and northwest...bringing
much cooler air than the area has seen this fall. Temperatures will
be several degrees below normal during this time. As the high
pressure moves off the East Coast...moisture will wrap around this
high and advect into the region. By the end of the work
week...expecting an increase in clouds and the chance for rain
showers for mainly our southern areas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 87 60 75 52 / 50 30 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 85 58 72 49 / 60 30 10 0
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 85 57 72 48 / 60 30 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 83 55 70 43 / 60 40 10 0