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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Marquette Michigan
620 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 345 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Precipitation has has moved across the entire region. As of
3pm...looks like most places to the west of a Marquette to Iron
Mountain line have changed to snow...with Road web cams to the west
showing accumulation starting on the roads. The rain/snow line will
gradually move east and south late this afternoon into this
evening...but will likely take it/S time moving to Lake Michigan as
the surface low currently over WI will likely hold up the cold
advection until it passes by this evening. This will also cause
frontogenetic forcing to increase as a result of the tightening temperature
gradient. With that being said...the expectation is that the
heaviest precipitation will stay generally east of a Big Bay to Iron
River line late this afternoon into this evening...just on the warm
side of the fgen circulation...which agrees quite well with latest
radar trends and short term nwp guidance. In addition...there will
be some upslope enhancement across north central Upper Michigan...and
perhaps some lake influence as well as 850mb temperatures drop. As
such...will continue with 2-4 inches across central Upper
Michigan...with locally as high as 5 inches in the higher terrain
west and south of Marquette. Will maintain the advisory as
is...especially given the wet nature of the snow likely causing some
travel headaches. With the fast movement of the system and the
significant dry air and anticyclonic flow moving into the area from
the west...expect the precipitation to diminish greatly in the
evening across the west and around or soon after midnight east. In the dry air quickly moves in overnight and before the
colder airmass aloft moves overhead...there is an opportunity for
freezing drizzle across the south central u.P overnight into Friday

Otherwise...a relatively quiet Friday is expected across the region
with high pressure building across the area. There will likely still
be some scattered snow showers downwind of Lake Superior as 850mb
temperatures remain around -11c. However...with the inversion around 3000 not expect any significant accumulating les. Will likely see
some sunshine on Friday as it should be a decent day for
traveling across the area.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 312 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

A high pressure ridge will be over the upper Great Lakes region at
the start of the forecast period and lead to a very cold night
across Upper Michigan. With precipitable water values at or below 0.1 inch and
light winds...should be a great radiational cooling
night...especially for locations that have fresh snowfall from
tonight into Friday morning. Single digits above zero seems pretty
reasonable for the interior locations and would not be surprised to
see the traditional cold spots in the west/central falling to zero
or even below. Only concern is the increasing southwesterly flow
over the Western Lake which should keep the far west and Keweenaw a
little more mixed and maybe the central late (steadying out or
slowly rising temperatures in those areas).

The ridge will slowly weaken through the day Saturday ahead of a
weak trough brushing the area (moving through northern ontario) on
Saturday night. Moisture is severely Don/T expect much
more than some middle clouds brushing Northeast Lake Superior ahead of
the trough and with a weak shortwave. As winds turn to the
north-northeast behind the trough...increasing low level moisture
may be enough for some low clouds off Lake Superior on Sunday
(inversion height around 2-3kft). With favorable upslope
winds...wouldn/T be surprised to see some upslope drizzle over the
higher terrain of the north central. Moisture depth may be a little just trended up the cloud cover for now and will keep
an eye on the drizzle potential over the next couple of day shifts.

Expect dry conditions for the start of next the area
is between the upper trough over eastern Canada...a cutoff low over
the southwestern Continental U.S....and a ridge over the Canadian rockies. As
the upper trough begins to shift east early next week...the upper
low will follow suit and move towards the Great Lakes region (likely
arriving Monday night into tuesday). That will bring increasing
precipitation chances to the area during that time frame and
continue through the middle part of next week as it pushes through.
With some moisture help from the existing slow moving trough
currently over the central/Southern Plains...models are indicating
over a half an inch of quantitative precipitation forecast for portions of the County Warning Area (especially on
the northwest side of the low lifting through central/eastern u.P.)
And there is definitely a chance much of that falls as snow as the
colder air from the upper low arrives. Will just add a mention of
measurable snow to the severe weather potential statement at this point to start to highlight the

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 620 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015

IFR conditions will be prevalent through the next 6-12 hours as low
pressure moves northeast through the upper lakes. Expect widespread
snow to move across the area into this evening as the low moves NE.
This may allow for LIFR conditions to develop...especially at saw
due to the upslope flow. However...dry air to the northwest of the area
will filter in overnight...allowing visibilities/ceilings to improve to MVFR
and eventually VFR Friday afternoon at all sites.

Marine...(for the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
issued at 345 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
low pressure over Wisconsin will quickly move northeast of the area
this evening. North winds to 30 knots will persist over the lake tonight
before diminishing and shifting southwest on Friday as high pressure
builds across the lake. Southwest winds will then increase to 30 knots
Friday night into Sat morning as the high shifts south of the area.
Otherwise...winds should remain below 20 knots until Tuesday into Wednesday when
the next low pressure system moves out of the plains and into the
Great Lakes region.

MQT watches/warnings/advisories...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 am EST /2 am CST/ Friday for

Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


Short term...mrd
long term...srf

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