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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
636 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 206 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Very little concerns through tomorrow as high pressure moves overhead.
New snow cover may allow for cooler temperatures then forecast...especially
in the low lying areas where a couple inches fell south of the Twin
Cities. Winds will shift to the SW tomorrow as the high moves off to
the southeast...temperatures will be a few degrees higher than today with reading
near 30 degrees.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 206 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Main item of concern in the later periods is potential for
accumulating snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Otherwise...
things look to be quiet through next Saturday. The model guidance
is in good agreement in terms of there being a period of precipitation from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday... but there remains quite a bit of
spread in the details. System results from the upper low currently over
the southwest Continental U.S. Being kicked out by a shortwave currently
south of the Aleutians. The upper low will move across our area
late Monday night and Tuesday... with the surface low occluding in
our general vicinity as it does so. The GFS is the farthest south
solution... with the Canadian farthest north... and the European model (ecmwf) in
the middle. The European model (ecmwf) essentially takes the surface low over the
Twin Cities... but still looks to be mostly snow except for
perhaps some mixed precipitation at the onset of things. Forecast soundings
from the GFS suggest the elevated warm nose will be just to the
southeast of the forecast area... but those details could
certainly change in the coming days. For now... kept precipitation types
simple and just included some mix with rain over the south and
east for a portion of the event. But... may eventually need to
include some sleet and perhaps freezing rain. In terms of magnitude... the
model consensus right now points toward a half to three quarters
of an inch of precipitation... which if snow could result in totals of over
6 inches for some. However... most of that looks to occur Monday
night into Tuesday... so is not yet into our 72 hour window for
qpf/snow. After Tuesday high pressure will build in... with things
remaining dry and generally seasonable for the rest of the week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 637 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain
light tonight and become southwest Saturday. additional concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
sun...VFR. Winds light and vrb.
Monday...VFR becoming IFR in snow late. Winds east-northeast 10 kts. Tuesday...IFR in
snow early. Poss VFR late. Winds NE becoming northwest 10-15 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jlt
long term...

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