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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
519 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Updated for 00z aviation discussion...
issued at 515 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

&&

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

The short term concern is frost potential late tonight over the
northeast County Warning Area.

Low clouds slow to clear over the far east. As upper trough shears
off to the east...we will see drier air works into the area this
evening with rapid clearing before sunset. Then winds will gradually
diminish late tonight as high pressure ridge builds southeast over
the western Great Lakes region. Expect lows to drop off to the
middle 30s over the northeast County Warning Area...mainly north and east of i94 in
Wisconsin and into central Minnesota. This will promote some areas of
frost and will headline this potential with an advisory for those
areas where gardens are planted and growing season is well
underway.

On Sunday...a weak short wave...now located over northern
Idaho/western Montana...moves across the Dakotas. This will spread
clouds and a small threat of showers to parts of southwest County Warning Area.
Atmosphere is dry with the high pressure ridge over the area...so it
will be difficult to generate measurable rain.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 322 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

A high pressure ridge will keep precipitation at Bay at the
beginning of the long term forecast period. Could have a few frost
concerns on Sunday night again...but primarily over northwest
Wisconsin up near Ladysmith. Temperatures will moderate on
Monday...but still be around 5 degrees below normal. Forecast
confidence wanes for the last half of the upcoming work
week...with respect to details surrounding the evolution of a
trough that will be on our western doorstep Wednesday morning.
Have decent confidence that showers and thunderstorms will enter
west/central Minnesota on Tuesday night as the low level jet blossoms and
the associated warm front lifts north. Whether redevelopment
occurs along the boundary on Wednesday is uncertain...given the
potential for convective inhibition from residual clouds/stability from
nocturnal activity. The front may lay up in our area through much
of the week...with the potential for multiple rounds of
precipitation. Given uncertainty in timing/placement...kept probability of precipitation
in the high chance category at this point.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 515 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

VFR conditions throughout. High pressure will drift east...with
northeasterly winds gradually becoming easterly overnight...and
even taking on a southerly component by morning. High/middle level
clouds will move in Sunday afternoon

Kmsp...
VFR conditions throughout. Winds will continue to diminish...and
become east southeasterly by Sunday morning.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Monday...VFR. Winds southeast 10 knots.
Tuesday...VFR. Winds south-southeast 10-15 knots.
Wednesday...VFR. Chance -tsra late. Winds south-southeast 10-15 knots.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am CDT Sunday for mnz042>045-
049>053.

WI...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am CDT Sunday for wiz014>016-023-
025-027.

&&

$$

Short term...dwe
long term...ls
aviation...jrb

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