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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1142 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Updated for 18z aviation discussion...
issued at 1135 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 255 CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

The short term concern remains wind chill issues this morning to the
west and then over mainly the Minnesota portion of the area for late
tonight/Thursday morning.

A cold morning across the area this morning with most areas seeing
zero or below. Some teens below in the far northwest area where they
saw the heaviest accumulations yesterday. Winds will remain above 8
miles per hour through the early morning...with lowest wind chills 25 to 30
below in the advisory area. Will keep the advisory going through
expiration at 15z. Morning sunshine will give way to some clouds as
the upper trough swings across the area. Should remain on the
scattered side however and remains too dry to mention flurries. The
winds will pick up this morning and become breezy again. Afternoon
highs will struggle to remain in the single digits above in the
northwest County Warning Area...to around 10 above to the east.

With the large surface high dropping southeast over the area into
Iowa overnight...winds will diminish this evening over the area.
Wind chills may become an issue again...mainly to the west for a
time...but winds may decrease enough to limit mention of an
advisory. Will let the day shift determine details. It will be
another cold night...with actual air temperatures in the teens below
in the western and northern portion of the County Warning Area.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 255 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

The big story in the long term forecast period will be the
transition to warmer than normal temperatures...with highs in the
40s and possibly even 50s for the first half of next week.

Prior to the warmup...surface high pressure will yield one more
cold day on Thursday...with highs topping out in the middle teens
/WI/ to lower 20s /wc MN/.

By Friday...the overall flow pattern begins to feature a more
pronounced western Continental U.S. Ridge...with southwest low level flow ensuing.
Should see high temperatures respond by moderating into the 30s. Over the
weekend...faint waves in the southern periphery of the trough
over northern Manitoba/Ontario pivot into the north central Continental U.S..
attendant moisture/lift could squeeze out a periodic light snow
shower or two over the weekend....primarily on Sunday as the main
trough passes.

After the trough passes...a zonal flow regime develops. By 00z
Tuesday...850mb temperatures moderate to around +5c. With the assistance
of a 10+kt wind...expect highs to warm into the 40s nearly area-
wide with except possibly slightly cooler readings in the upper
30s over west central WI. Low level temperatures continue to moderate
into the middle of the upcoming week...with both GFS and European model (ecmwf)
models depicting the potential for double digit 850mb temperatures by
Wednesday. This could mean highs in the middle 40s to middle 50s range
for the entire forecast area. The warmest readings would be found
over west central and southwest Minnesota where the west/southwest winds
are a favorable direction for warming off of the Buffalo Ridge.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1135 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

A few MVFR ceilings/snow showers are possible this afternoon...but not
expecting more than flurries...so have VFR in the tafs at most
locations. Northwest winds will taper off this evening and take
on a westerly direction tonight...and a southwesterly direction on
Thursday.

Kmsp...
snow showers should stay to the northeast this afternoon...with
VFR conditions throughout the forecast period.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Friday...VFR. Winds SW at 10kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds northwest at 10kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds west-southwest at 10g15kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Short term...dwe
long term...ls
aviation...jrb

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