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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
344 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 344 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

The clouds have moved out as anticyclonic flow moves in this
afternoon. Clear skies are expected through the short term with
very few clouds from here to the Pacific Ocean. Surface high
pressure drifting to the south across the Missouri Valley should
keep winds somewhat elevated tonight and prevent temperatures from
dropping below freezing on a widespread basis.

Zonal flow bringing warmer air across the plains Wednesday will
allow highs to jump a good 10-15 degrees over today. Many
locations across southwestern Minnesota should reach the lower 70s...with
middle to upper 60s expected elsewhere.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 344 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Two main weather themes remain on track for the upper Midwest which
calls for a frost/freeze Saturday morning...and a rapid warm up late
in the weekend through early next week. /70s possible by Monday/

A storm system in the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon will move southeast
into the upper Midwest Thursday. This will reinforce the cool air
mass in place and allow for a widespread frost/freeze Saturday
morning. Some of the models indicate that lower 20s are possible in
central Minnesota Saturday morning which is the coolest readings since late
April 2015. Surface winds may be strong enough Friday night/Saturday
morning to limit frost potential...but freezing temperatures look likely in
eastern Minnesota/western WI.

This cooler air mass will retreat abruptly Saturday night/Sunday as
500 mb heights build over the northern plains/upper Midwest and return
flow in the boundary layer develops. Once this 500 mb ridge moves
east...west/SW winds aloft will transport higher moisture content
for the upper Midwest as a storm system develops Monday/Tuesday. weeks weather remains uncertain in terms of warmth
and rainfall chance/S as a split flow regime develops. The Pacific northwest
will begin to see more zonal flow allowing for more storm systems to
move into the region. In the meantime...the upper low centered off
of the Southern California coast will move east-NE into the desert
SW and increase precipitation water values into the plains. Because
of the split flow regime...confidence on storm development for the
upper Midwest is low...especially considering most of the longer
range models indicate most of the active weather south of our region
Tue/Wed. But again...this split flow regime plays havoc on model
forecast. Only confidence past Sunday is a warmer scenario with the
west/southwest flow. If the northern jet stream is more active next
week...we could be in for a more active period in terms of

Looking further in time...days 8-14 and beyond... the typical El
Nino set up remains on track with the predominate weather pattern
for the upper Midwest warm and dry. Even the latest cfs2 has its 16
member ensemble mean temperatures above normal through the first week of


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1243 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

MVFR ceilings are about to push east of rnh and eau...with clear skies
extending westward to the eastern Pacific. VFR conditions are
expected through the period after the clouds exit Wisconsin.
Northwest winds will ease tonight and back west Wednesday. additional concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Thursday...VFR with schc -shra. Wind northwest 15g25kt.
Friday...VFR. Wind northwest 10-15 knots.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable 5 knots.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...borghoff
long term...jlt

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