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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION 
THIS MORNING FUELED BY THE VEERING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THETA_E 
ADVECTION IN CONNECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS THIS 40KT JET WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN...AND 
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERN MN. AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE 
TO DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE 
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT ENTERS WESTERN WI. 

EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP MISSED THE PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED IN 
NORTHEAST SD...SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT HIGHRES MODELS HAVE BEEN 
STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPED 
EARLIER. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE RUNS HAVE BEEN ALL BUT DISCARDED. 
THE 25.06HRRR HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 
CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 
11Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DEEP STABLE 
LAYER BENEATH THE ELEVATED CAPE...AND ONLY MARGINAL 30-35KTS OF 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE MORNING PRECIP 
YIELDING ANOTHER MUGGY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 
70F. INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS WEST OF I35...AND RAISED 
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SENDING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S 
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE WEEKEND STARTS OUT ON A MILD NOTE...AS THE AREA REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH IN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE RESULT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE TYPES OF
LOWS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST FROM CENTRAL MN
INTO WI...WHERE FORCING/MOISTURE IS DEEPER. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT ON A DRY AND MILD NOTE AS THE WEEKEND LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS CRAMMED BETWEEN WESTERN
RIDGING AND EASTERN TROUGHING AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...YIELDING COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRICKLE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR THE INCLUSION OF 20-30 POPS. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND 07Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND EXPAND EASTWARD IN THE HOURS
FOLLOWING...REACHING STC AROUND 09Z...MSP AROUND 10Z...AND RNH BY
11Z. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN. ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS. FOLLOWING THE PRECIP...MODELS INSIST
ON DEVELOPING IFR OR MVFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO AS
THEY HAVE OVERDONE THESE EVENTS TIME AND TIME AGAIN THIS SUMMER.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCT MENTION AROUND 2 KFT BEFORE CIGS RISE TOWARD
4 KFT BY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AT MSP
AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 OR 13Z. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED AND BROUGHT BACK THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS. 
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF




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