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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
556 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Updated for 12z aviation discussion...
issued at 552 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 308 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

The upper level pattern currently in place across the Continental U.S. Will
become more amplified over the next 24 hours as it shifts eastward.
500mb height rises will overspread Western Lake Superior this
morning...and the associated subsidence should cause the low clouds
across northeastern Minnesota to dissipate throughout the day.

As the surface high pressure currently located across Manitoba
migrates southeast over the upper Midwest the strong northwest winds
will gradually subside. With the seasonably cool airmass in
place...forecast highs for today will remain in the middle to upper 30s
across the region. Tonight low temperatures will drop into the teens across
western Wisconsin with the ridge axis centered along the St Croix
River Valley. Meanwhile light southerly winds will keep overnight
lows in the 20s across most of Minnesota. There is no chance for
precipitation in the near term.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 308 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

By Sunday morning there are two well-defined pv boots
transversing the Continental U.S. With Minnesota/WI right in the middle. Eventually
the system off to out west on Sunday will move across the High
Plains and into northwest Minnesota and southwest Ontario Monday morning.
That puts the forecast area near dry slot on Monday. The ridging
that moves in on Sunday quickly departs on Monday as a shortwave
trough slides east out of the northern plains near the
international border. The pattern then quickly evolves into a split
flow patter. Another southern stream shortwave is prognosticated to
eject out of the mean trough and into the middle Mississippi River
valley. A surface front/trough will link the two upper level systems.
The main frontogenetic forcing indicated from the GFS/European model (ecmwf) with
the boundary remains south of the forecast area. We still bring
chance probability of precipitation and light quantitative precipitation forecast into southern Minnesota and west central WI.
There is good moisture advection at850 mb moisture along and ahead
of the front though...brought in by a 40+ knots low level jet. For
the rest of the week...the upper level flow becomes quick and more
zonal. GFS/ec trending toward a dry forecast...with temperatures around
climatological normal.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 552 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

VFR conditions throughout. Northerly winds will gradually subside
today...and shift to the east and eventually southeast by morning.
The clouds to the north will also dissipate during the morning

no differences from the general discussion. VFR conditions

/Outlook for kmsp/
sun...VFR. Winds south-southeast 15g20 kts.
Monday...VFR with MVFR ceilings/rain showers possible. Wind south-southwest 5g10 kts.
Tuesday...VFR. Winds northwest at 10g15kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jrb
long term...clf

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