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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
257 PM CDT Monday Oct 5 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Monday Oct 5 2015

Cloudiness is the biggest concern in the short term with rather
extensive middle level clouds covering areas to the west and north of
the Twin Cities with quite a few holes having opened up this
afternoon to the south and east. Going forward...the middle level
clouds to our west will slowly overspread the rest of the forecast area
during the night as a short wave and associated cold front move
in from the northern plains. Nearly all solutions (deterministic
and cams) show a dry passage with the front late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be rather
warm...considering the past few mornings...with lower to middle
50s for much of the Minnesota County Warning Area and in the middle to upper 40s across
west central WI. Cloudiness should decrease during the afternoon
to the west and north of the Twin Cities in the wake of the
short wave/front and by evening to the east and south. Still
banking on highs in the middle to upper 60s on Tuesday along with
some lower 70s in the Minnesota River Valley.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 257 PM CDT Monday Oct 5 2015

Models continue in good agreement...though they have slowed the
progression of the short wave associated with the midweek event.
This will delay the rain until Wednesday night into Thursday for much of
the area. Forcing associated with warm air advection and layered Theta-E advection
should generate a chance of showers into west central Minnesota Wednesday
afternoon. Will have to overcome initial dry atmosphere...which is
the concern of overall development farther to the east.

As system moves through...still looks to be categorical probability of precipitation for
much of the area Wednesday night...with tapering chances from west
to east on Thursday. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts currently range around one half
inch over the central County Warning Area with around one quarter inch to the south.
We could see some wraparound showers to the east into Thursday...but
they should be fairly limited in overall coverage. Cooler into
Friday before more zonal type pattern aloft develops for the area
through the weekend. This will allow for another stretch of mild
and dry weather with afternoon highs warming back into the 70s for
next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1220 PM CDT Monday Oct 5 2015

Low clouds are finally beginning to dissipate across eastern Minnesota
and western WI early this afternoon. The eau terminal could
possibly see an hour or two more of MVFR ceilings...but everywhere
else should remain VFR through the rest of the period. Middle levels
will remain fairly saturated...leading to widespread broken to
overcast skies at 5000-7000 feet throughout most of tonight and
Tuesday morning across our region.

Kmsp...MVFR ceilings have lifted and only middle-level clouds are
expected for the remainder of the period. Some breaks in the
clouds are beginning to appear and could become scattered at times
later this afternoon...but a return to overcast conditions should
occur tonight and Tuesday morning. Winds will remain
light...initially from the southeast and veering to the SW overnight and
northwest Tuesday afternoon.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Tuesday...VFR. Wind SW becoming northwest 5 kts.
Wednesday...VFR. -Shra likely/chance MVFR late. Wind east-southeast 5-10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. -Shra likely/chance MVFR early. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming northwest
12-18 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rah
long term...dwe

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