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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
710 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Update...
issued at 701 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 422 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The short term concern is the extent of smoke/haze into the region
and any fog threat in the east.

Dry surge dropping in behind departing front. Thicker smoke mixed
out over the northwest County Warning Area this afternoon...while spreading rapidly
in behind the departing front. Will mention some areas of smoke
through the afternoon. Latest model guidance was not available for a
smoke forecast so will leave out for tonight for now. Drier
dewpoints working over the area with northwest winds should preclude
significant fog formation. Maybe into west central Wisconsin late
tonight as winds diminish further and moist ground.

Mostly sunny and cool day expected for Tuesday with high pressure
dominating the area.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 422 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The remainder of the week will be benign...as broad surface high
pressure dominates the region and middle/upper forcing remains
displaced well out of the area. More active weather will arrive
for the upcoming weekend...including the return of warm and humid
air.

In the meantime...dry weather is expected to persist through the
next few days...along with cooler than normal temperatures.
Unfortunately it appears there will be another round of smoke
moving in on Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Highs will gradually
moderate from values in the middle 70s on Wednesday...to upper 70s to
lower 80s on Friday.

On Friday night into Saturday there has been consistency and
agreement amongst the models that the a warm front will lift into
the area. This will be our next decent opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms...and also a shot at highs nearing 90 degrees given
850 mb temperatures around +25c. Cloud cover may hinder that however...so
have stuck with forecast highs in the middle to upper 80s. This
boundary looks to stall near the area through the weekend...which
would mean occasional bouts of precipitation.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 701 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Aside from broad swaths of smoke from Canadian wildfires
blanketing the area behind the departing cold front of today... no
aviation issues are evident. Visibility will start out as a mixture of
MVFR and IFR this evening...eventually going to VFR by late this
evening as the inversion sets in. Once deeper mixing resumes after
daybreak tmrw morning...there is a decent chance of seeing the smoke
regain traction on deteriorating visibilities during the day tmrw.
Confidence is not that great in this scenario at this time but cannot be
ruled out so for now have mentioned fu at all sites through tmrw afternoon
but kept visibility at minimal VFR 6sm.

Kmsp...no other significant weather issues are expected outside of
fu/visibility concerns.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Friday...VFR. Winds southeast 5-10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Update...jpc
short term...dwe
long term...ls
aviation...jpc

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