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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
539 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 402 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Today/S forecast is similar to yesterday with breezy conds once
again developing during the morning. Early morning WV imagery
does have a fairly strong shortwave and associated 90 knots jet
streak moving into northern ND. This shortwave will cause some
-shra in northern Minnesota...and as far south as Mora/Rush City by noon.
However...dry atmosphere blw 5k should support only sprinkles if
they develop. Elsewhere...only a few clouds are expected. Afternoon temperatures
will be slightly higher as 850 mb temperatures rise a few degrees and mix to
the surface. Middle 80s are fairly certain in southern/SW Minnesota/wc Minnesota...with
low 80s elsewhere. No other changes for tonight.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 402 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Friday through Sunday...fairly persistent pattern is expected to
remain across noam with a trough to the east...including a large
rotating upper low over Hudson Bay...and a ridge over western noam. This
will promote northwesterly flow over the central Continental U.S.. surface high pressure from
the Canadian rockies extending southeastward into the northern plains will
maintain an influence over the upper miss River Valley region Friday
into Sat morning...keeping warm and dry conds in place. The pattern
breaks down just enough over the weekend to allow a compact low
pressure system to drive southeastward from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota and southwestern WI
late Sat into sun...with a modest buckling in the 500 mb flow aloft
which could potentially lend some upper level support. Surface dewpoints
do increase into the lower 60s in conjunction with the passage of
this there does appear to be potential for isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms Sat night through sun...but timing and placement
of storms is highly problematic to determine at this time so will cap probability of precipitation
in the chance range. Severe weather potential looks low...but is non-zero
at this time so will continue to monitor later model runs. Temperatures still
look to run warm with highs in the 80s through the weekend.

Monday through Wednesday...a modest cooling trend will commence
for the first half of next week behind the aforementioned low
pressure system pushing through the region. Slight 500 mb height falls early
next week along with a slight expansion of the eastern noam trough will
allow for a small drop in temperatures as highs fall back to the middle 70s
to lower 80s. There looks to be little precipitation potential Monday-Tuesday as
central Canadian high pressure will extend southward into the upper miss River
Valley while upper level flow becomes more meridional...preventing any
weather-making systems from impacting the area. However...a more zonal
pattern develops for Wednesday which will allow a conglomerate of
low pressure centers to shift southeastward into the region. Deeper swaths of
moisture under modest perturbations in the upper level flow will allow
for additional showers/thunderstorms to develop for Wednesday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 540 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

No changes in the aviation community. Gusty west-northwest winds will develop by
middle/late morning and continue to gust until 23-00z.


VFR conds with gusty winds today from the west-northwest.

/Outlook for kmsp/

Sat...VFR isolated thunderstorms and rain late. Wind SW at 5-10 knots.
Sun...VFR. Isolated thunderstorms and rain early. Wind SW at 5 knots.
Monday...VFR. Wind northwest/north-northwest at 5-10 kts.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jlt
long term...jpc

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