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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
111 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Updated for 18z aviation discussion...
issued at 108 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Only concern is how high will the wind gusts get today as a
powerful Summer storm system moves across the Canadian prairies.
Tuesday afternoon wind gusts were over 50 to 60 miles per hour across western and
central ND which is very unusual for this time of year for
synoptic scale winds. Although these winds will not be as strong
in mpx County Warning Area...it will be strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory
today. Currently the Wind Advisory is valid from 10 am to 5 PM.
However...winds have already begun to gusts above 30 miles per hour near
Alexandria as of 330 am. The strongest winds and the best momentum
Transfer to the surface will occur shortly after sunrise...through about
2 PM. Some of the typical areas of wc Minnesota where winds are strong
normally...could gust above 45 miles per hour at times during the middle/late
morning. Expect a quick decrease in the wind speeds by middle/late
afternoon with light west winds overnight. Not much cloud cover also
with the bulk of the moisture remaining across northern Minnesota today.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Thursday and Friday...northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure
will be the prevailing combination for the end of the work week.
This will promote warm and dry conditions over the area...with
highs mainly in the low 80s but also low relative humidity values with dewpoints
generally in the upper 50s.

Saturday through Tuesday...the aforementioned pattern breaks down
a bit late Saturday into Sunday as a clipper-type system drives
southeastward from western Canada. The pronounced eastern noam trough with a western noam
ridge will force a compact low pressure center from making a prolonged
stay in the upper miss River Valley...but it looks to be just enough
to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms to much of the County warning forecast area Sat night before
exiting early Sun morning. A more organized system looks to have
slower progress across the region Monday and Monday night...as this system
will have better upper level support from which to draw lift and
dynamics. This system will exit to the southeast Monday night into Tuesday but
its trailing surface front may stall out near the Iowa/Minnesota border...
allowing for additional precipitation chances over southern portions of
the area going into the middle of next week. Temperatures will
have little variation from the weekend into early next week. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with continued mild
dewpoints in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 108 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

VFR conditions throughout. Wind gusts will decrease
overnight...but increase again Thursday morning.

Kmsp...
VFR conditions throughout. Wind gusts will decrease
overnight...but increase again Thursday morning.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Friday...VFR. Wind northwest 10 knots.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/thunderstorms and rain possible late. Wind SW at 5-10 knots.
Sun...VFR. Wind S at 5 knots.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Short term...jlt
long term...jpc
aviation...jrb

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