Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1101 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Update...
issued at 1056 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 422 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The short term concern is the extent of smoke/haze into the region
and any fog threat in the east.

Dry surge dropping in behind departing front. Thicker smoke mixed
out over the northwest County Warning Area this afternoon...while spreading rapidly
in behind the departing front. Will mention some areas of smoke
through the afternoon. Latest model guidance was not available for a
smoke forecast so will leave out for tonight for now. Drier
dewpoints working over the area with northwest winds should preclude
significant fog formation. Maybe into west central Wisconsin late
tonight as winds diminish further and moist ground.

Mostly sunny and cool day expected for Tuesday with high pressure
dominating the area.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 422 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The remainder of the week will be benign...as broad surface high
pressure dominates the region and middle/upper forcing remains
displaced well out of the area. More active weather will arrive
for the upcoming weekend...including the return of warm and humid
air.

In the meantime...dry weather is expected to persist through the
next few days...along with cooler than normal temperatures.
Unfortunately it appears there will be another round of smoke
moving in on Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Highs will gradually
moderate from values in the middle 70s on Wednesday...to upper 70s to
lower 80s on Friday.

On Friday night into Saturday there has been consistency and
agreement amongst the models that the a warm front will lift into
the area. This will be our next decent opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms...and also a shot at highs nearing 90 degrees given
850 mb temperatures around +25c. Cloud cover may hinder that however...so
have stuck with forecast highs in the middle to upper 80s. This
boundary looks to stall near the area through the weekend...which
would mean occasional bouts of precipitation.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1056 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Canadian wildfire smoke has cleared away from the weather forecast office mpx taf
sites so have been able to initialize all sites with VFR. Only
site that is in question is Keau...but will monitor observation around 06z
and adjust as needed. Then all sites expected to remain as VFR
through tmrw evening. There is still a small chance of having smoke re-
develop late morning with some mixing but air quality models indicate
smoke will not be enough to reduce visibility to lower than VFR visibility. No
ceiling/wx/wind issues expected.

Kmsp...no significant weather issues expected.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Friday...VFR. Winds southeast 5-10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Update...jpc
short term...dwe
long term...ls
aviation...jpc

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations